Sun, Dec 14 2025 • 16:30 • Allianz Arena
Match Finished
Expected Goals
5.67 (league 1.59) 0.40 (league 1.50)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
48.5% 1.1% 0.3%
best score tips
5 - 0
11.3%
4 - 0
9.9%
3 - 0
7.0%
Score & goals probability table
FSV Mainz 05
0 1 2 3 4 5
Bayern München 0 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
1 1.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
2 3.7% 1.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
3 7.0% 2.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 9.9% 4.0% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 11.3% 4.5% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricBayern MünchenFSV Mainz 05
Played55
Form87%13%
Attack100%13%
Defense67%47%
Goals For (tot | avg)19 | 3.82 | 0.4
Goals Against (tot | avg)5 | 18 | 1.6

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

4.60
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

5.10
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.50
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.80
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

95%
FT probability

2.5+

75%
FT probability

3.5+

54%
FT probability

BTTS

74%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Bayern München FSV Mainz 05
HATHAT
Played76137613
Wins100%83%92%0%17%8%
Draws0%17%8%29%17%23%
Loses0%0%0%71%67%69%

Form: Bayern München: WWWWWWWWWDWWW • FSV Mainz 05: LDLWLLLLDLDLL

League goals

Metric Bayern München FSV Mainz 05
HATHAT
GF total2920495611
GF avg4.13.33.80.71.00.8
GA total459111324
GA avg0.60.80.71.62.21.8

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineBayern MünchenFSV Mainz 05
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.5100%46%46%100%
1.5100%23%15%38%
2.585%0%15%23%
3.546%0%8%23%
4.531%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricBayern MünchenFSV Mainz 05
HATHAT
Clean sheets437000
Failed to score000437

Penalties

MetricBayern MünchenFSV Mainz 05
Scored (total | %)4 | 100.00%3 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total43

Streaks

MetricBayern MünchenFSV Mainz 05
Wins91
Draws11
Losses04

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins6-00-51-4
Biggest losses0-24-0
Goals For6534
Goals Against2244

Model comparison

MetricBayern MünchenFSV Mainz 05
Form87%13%
Att90%10%
Def62%38%
Poisson Distribution93%7%
H2h80%20%
Goals83%17%
Total82.5%17.5%

Advice: Combo Winner : Bayern München and +1.5 goals

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.14 @ 1xBet
Draw13.50 @ Pinnacle
Away25.00 @ Betano

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.20 @ 10Bet
Under 2.54.80 @ Betfair

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.02 @ Unibet
No1.95 @ 10Bet
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Bayern München = 5.67 (league 1.59), FSV Mainz 05 = 0.40 (league 1.50)

FSV Mainz 05
0 1 2 3 4 5
Bayern München 0 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
1 1.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
2 3.7% 1.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
3 7.0% 2.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 9.9% 4.0% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 11.3% 4.5% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 48.5% · Draw 1.1% · Away win 0.3%

Vtot 23 , Vtod3