Bundesliga — Germany
Fri, Dec 12 2025 • 19:30 • Stadion An der Alten Försterei
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.23 (league 1.59) 1.31 (league 1.50)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
34.7% 26.7% 38.2%
best score tips
1 - 1
12.7%
0 - 1
10.3%
1 - 0
9.7%
Score & goals probability table
RB Leipzig
0 1 2 3 4 5
Union Berlin 0 7.9% 10.3% 6.7% 2.9% 1.0% 0.3%
1 9.7% 12.7% 8.3% 3.6% 1.2% 0.3%
2 6.0% 7.8% 5.1% 2.2% 0.7% 0.2%
3 2.5% 3.2% 2.1% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1%
4 0.8% 1.0% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricUnion BerlinRB Leipzig
Played55
Form33%67%
Attack23%55%
Defense68%82%
Goals For (tot | avg)5 | 112 | 2.4
Goals Against (tot | avg)7 | 1.44 | 0.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.40
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.80
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.70
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.80
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

84%
FT probability

2.5+

59%
FT probability

3.5+

42%
FT probability

BTTS

64%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Union Berlin RB Leipzig
HATHAT
Played76136713
Wins29%33%31%100%43%69%
Draws43%0%23%0%29%15%
Loses29%67%46%0%29%15%

Form: Union Berlin: WLLWDLWLDDWLL • RB Leipzig: LWWWWDWWWLWDW

League goals

Metric Union Berlin RB Leipzig
HATHAT
GF total10616181028
GF avg1.41.01.23.01.42.2
GA total10122231013
GA avg1.42.01.70.51.41.0

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineUnion BerlinRB Leipzig
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.562%77%85%46%
1.538%54%54%15%
2.515%31%31%15%
3.58%8%15%8%
4.50%0%15%8%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricUnion BerlinRB Leipzig
HATHAT
Clean sheets213347
Failed to score235022

Penalties

MetricUnion BerlinRB Leipzig
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total00

Streaks

MetricUnion BerlinRB Leipzig
Wins14
Draws21
Losses21

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-13-46-00-6
Biggest losses2-43-0—6-0
Goals For3466
Goals Against4316

Model comparison

MetricUnion BerlinRB Leipzig
Form33%67%
Att29%71%
Def36%64%
Poisson Distribution45%55%
H2h38%62%
Goals25%75%
Total34.3%65.7%

Advice: Double chance : draw or RB Leipzig

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home3.17 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.55 @ Pinnacle
Away2.44 @ 1xBet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.98 @ 1xBet
Under 2.51.96 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.75 @ Bet365
No2.20 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Union Berlin = 1.23 (league 1.59), RB Leipzig = 1.31 (league 1.50)

RB Leipzig
0 1 2 3 4 5
Union Berlin 0 7.9% 10.3% 6.7% 2.9% 1.0% 0.3%
1 9.7% 12.7% 8.3% 3.6% 1.2% 0.3%
2 6.0% 7.8% 5.1% 2.2% 0.7% 0.2%
3 2.5% 3.2% 2.1% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1%
4 0.8% 1.0% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 34.7% · Draw 26.7% · Away win 38.2%

Vtot 33 , Vtod2