Bundesliga — Germany
Wed, Jan 14 2026 • 19:30 • Red Bull Arena
Match Finished
Expected Goals
3.51 (league 1.62) 0.84 (league 1.50)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
71.5% 9.0% 5.1%
best score tips
3 - 0
9.3%
4 - 0
8.2%
2 - 0
8.0%
Score & goals probability table
SC Freiburg
0 1 2 3 4 5
RB Leipzig 0 1.3% 1.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
1 4.5% 3.8% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
2 8.0% 6.7% 2.8% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0%
3 9.3% 7.8% 3.3% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0%
4 8.2% 6.9% 2.9% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0%
5 5.7% 4.8% 2.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricRB LeipzigSC Freiburg
Played55
Form47%67%
Attack42%50%
Defense75%71%
Goals For (tot | avg)10 | 212 | 2.4
Goals Against (tot | avg)6 | 1.27 | 1.4

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.70
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

4.10
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.00
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.00
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

95%
FT probability

2.5+

69%
FT probability

3.5+

49%
FT probability

BTTS

72%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

1 - 3 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric RB Leipzig SC Freiburg
HATHAT
Played78158816
Wins86%38%60%50%25%38%
Draws0%25%13%38%25%31%
Loses14%38%27%13%50%31%

Form: RB Leipzig: LWWWWDWWWLWDWLL • SC Freiburg: LLWWDDDLDWLWLDWW

League goals

Metric RB Leipzig SC Freiburg
HATHAT
GF total191130161127
GF avg2.71.42.02.01.41.7
GA total61319101727
GA avg0.91.61.31.32.11.7

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineRB LeipzigSC Freiburg
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.587%53%81%75%
1.547%27%50%44%
2.527%27%25%25%
3.513%7%13%13%
4.513%7%0%6%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricRB LeipzigSC Freiburg
HATHAT
Clean sheets347134
Failed to score022033

Penalties

MetricRB LeipzigSC Freiburg
Scored (total | %)1 | 100.00%5 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total15

Streaks

MetricRB LeipzigSC Freiburg
Wins42
Draws13
Losses12

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins6-00-64-00-3
Biggest losses1-36-01-36-2
Goals For6644
Goals Against3636

Model comparison

MetricRB LeipzigSC Freiburg
Form41%59%
Att45%55%
Def54%46%
Poisson Distribution80%20%
H2h93%7%
Goals79%21%
Total65.3%34.7%

Advice: Double chance : RB Leipzig or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.86 @ 1xBet
Draw4.10 @ Dafabet
Away4.59 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.78 @ 1xBet
Under 2.52.23 @ SBO

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.67 @ Bet365
No2.30 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): RB Leipzig = 3.51 (league 1.62), SC Freiburg = 0.84 (league 1.50)

SC Freiburg
0 1 2 3 4 5
RB Leipzig 0 1.3% 1.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
1 4.5% 3.8% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
2 8.0% 6.7% 2.8% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0%
3 9.3% 7.8% 3.3% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0%
4 8.2% 6.9% 2.9% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0%
5 5.7% 4.8% 2.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 71.5% · Draw 9.0% · Away win 5.1%

vtt 2 , vtd1