Bundesliga — Germany
Fri, Jan 23 2026 • 19:30 • Millerntor-Stadion
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.57 (league 1.61) 0.72 (league 1.45)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
57.1% 25.3% 17.1%
best score tips
1 - 0
15.9%
2 - 0
12.5%
1 - 1
11.5%
Score & goals probability table
Hamburger SV
0 1 2 3 4 5
FC St. Pauli 0 10.1% 7.3% 2.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
1 15.9% 11.5% 4.1% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0%
2 12.5% 9.0% 3.2% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0%
3 6.5% 4.7% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
4 2.6% 1.8% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.8% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricFC St. PauliHamburger SV
Played55
Form33%33%
Attack40%40%
Defense53%40%
Goals For (tot | avg)6 | 1.26 | 1.2
Goals Against (tot | avg)7 | 1.49 | 1.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.90
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.60
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.40
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

4.40
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

81%
FT probability

2.5+

57%
FT probability

3.5+

40%
FT probability

BTTS

68%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

1 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric FC St. Pauli Hamburger SV
HATHAT
Played710179817
Wins29%10%18%44%0%24%
Draws14%20%18%33%25%29%
Loses57%70%65%22%75%47%

Form: FC St. Pauli: DWWLLLLLLLLLDWDLL • Hamburger SV: DLLWDWLLLDLWWLDLD

League goals

Metric FC St. Pauli Hamburger SV
HATHAT
GF total881613417
GF avg1.10.80.91.40.51.0
GA total15163191827
GA avg2.11.61.81.02.31.6

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineFC St. PauliHamburger SV
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.559%88%59%76%
1.529%59%24%41%
2.56%29%12%18%
3.50%6%6%18%
4.50%0%0%6%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricFC St. PauliHamburger SV
HATHAT
Clean sheets022224
Failed to score347347

Penalties

MetricFC St. PauliHamburger SV
Scored (total | %)1 | 100.00%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total10

Streaks

MetricFC St. PauliHamburger SV
Wins22
Draws11
Losses93

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-10-24-0—
Biggest losses0-43-10-25-0
Goals For3241
Goals Against4325

Model comparison

MetricFC St. PauliHamburger SV
Form50%50%
Att50%50%
Def56%44%
Poisson Distribution66%34%
H2h50%50%
Goals59%41%
Total55.2%44.8%

Advice: Double chance : FC St. Pauli or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home3.10 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.03 @ 1xBet
Away2.76 @ 1xBet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.75 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.53 @ 10Bet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.19 @ Pinnacle
No1.76 @ 188Bet
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): FC St. Pauli = 1.57 (league 1.61), Hamburger SV = 0.72 (league 1.45)

Hamburger SV
0 1 2 3 4 5
FC St. Pauli 0 10.1% 7.3% 2.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
1 15.9% 11.5% 4.1% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0%
2 12.5% 9.0% 3.2% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0%
3 6.5% 4.7% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
4 2.6% 1.8% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.8% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 57.1% · Draw 25.3% · Away win 17.1%

vtt 17 , vtd1