Bundesliga — Germany
Sat, Feb 14 2026 • 14:30 • BayArena
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.99 (league 1.61) 0.55 (league 1.45)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
69.9% 19.2% 9.3%
best score tips
1 - 0
15.7%
2 - 0
15.6%
3 - 0
10.3%
Score & goals probability table
FC St. Pauli
0 1 2 3 4 5
Bayer Leverkusen 0 7.9% 4.4% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
1 15.7% 8.7% 2.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
2 15.6% 8.6% 2.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
3 10.3% 5.7% 1.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
4 5.1% 2.8% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 2.0% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricBayer LeverkusenFC St. Pauli
Played55
Form47%33%
Attack33%33%
Defense61%61%
Goals For (tot | avg)6 | 1.26 | 1.2
Goals Against (tot | avg)7 | 1.47 | 1.4

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.00
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.80
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.10
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.60
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

82%
FT probability

2.5+

58%
FT probability

3.5+

41%
FT probability

BTTS

72%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 3 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Bayer Leverkusen FC St. Pauli
HATHAT
Played101020101121
Wins60%50%55%30%9%19%
Draws10%20%15%30%18%24%
Loses30%30%30%40%73%57%

Form: Bayer Leverkusen: LDWDWWWWLWWLLWWLLWWD • FC St. Pauli: DWWLLLLLLLLLDWDLLDDLW

League goals

Metric Bayer Leverkusen FC St. Pauli
HATHAT
GF total20193911920
GF avg2.01.92.01.10.81.0
GA total101727171835
GA avg1.01.71.41.71.61.7

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineBayer LeverkusenFC St. Pauli
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.585%75%62%86%
1.555%35%29%52%
2.535%20%5%24%
3.510%5%0%5%
4.55%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricBayer LeverkusenFC St. Pauli
HATHAT
Clean sheets505123
Failed to score033448

Penalties

MetricBayer LeverkusenFC St. Pauli
Scored (total | %)4 | 100.00%4 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total44

Streaks

MetricBayer LeverkusenFC St. Pauli
Wins42
Draws12
Losses29

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins6-01-32-10-2
Biggest losses1-43-00-43-1
Goals For6432
Goals Against4343

Model comparison

MetricBayer LeverkusenFC St. Pauli
Form58%42%
Att50%50%
Def50%50%
Poisson Distribution77%23%
H2h93%7%
Goals71%29%
Total66.5%33.5%

Advice: Double chance : Bayer Leverkusen or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.58 @ 1xBet
Draw4.44 @ Pinnacle
Away7.00 @ Unibet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.89 @ 1xBet
Under 2.52.05 @ SBO

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.95 @ Bet365
No1.91 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Bayer Leverkusen = 1.99 (league 1.61), FC St. Pauli = 0.55 (league 1.45)

FC St. Pauli
0 1 2 3 4 5
Bayer Leverkusen 0 7.9% 4.4% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
1 15.7% 8.7% 2.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
2 15.6% 8.6% 2.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
3 10.3% 5.7% 1.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
4 5.1% 2.8% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 2.0% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 69.9% · Draw 19.2% · Away win 9.3%

vtt 4 , vtd1