Bundesliga — Germany
Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 13:30 • MHPArena
Not Started

VfB Stuttgart

—

Werder Bremen

Expected Goals
1.87 (league 1.64) 0.67 (league 1.47)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
64.7% 21.3% 12.7%
best score tips
1 - 0
14.7%
2 - 0
13.7%
1 - 1
9.9%
Score & goals probability table
Werder Bremen
0 1 2 3 4 5
VfB Stuttgart 0 7.9% 5.3% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
1 14.7% 9.9% 3.3% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0%
2 13.7% 9.3% 3.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
3 8.5% 5.8% 1.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
4 4.0% 2.7% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
5 1.5% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
FootyWow Elo verdict

Home strong edge

VfB Stuttgart carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 201 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: VfB Stuttgart +8.7, Werder Bremen -8.9.

Strong confidence Upset risk: Low Elo standalone
VfB Stuttgart Elo 1654.1 · +8.7
vs
Werder Bremen Elo 1487.8 · -8.9
Elo gapVfB Stuttgart +201
Home / draw / away62% / 18% / 20%
Expected home share76%
Combined Elo3141.9
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge Home strong edge
Confidence band Strong confidence
Upset risk Low
Model agreement Elo standalone
Combined Elo 3141.9
Elo home share 76%
Match tone Heavy Favorite
Metric VfB Stuttgart Werder Bremen
Overall Elo1654.11487.8
Form Elo1654.61488.1
Home / Away Elo1557.21498.8
Attack Elo1789.61518.3
Defense Elo1588.81479.7
Last 5 Elo change+8.7-8.9

This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. VfB Stuttgart last-5 Elo change: +8.7; Werder Bremen last-5 Elo change: -8.9.

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricVfB StuttgartWerder Bremen
Played55
Form60%40%
Attack63%32%
Defense58%58%
Goals For (tot | avg)12 | 2.46 | 1.2
Goals Against (tot | avg)8 | 1.68 | 1.6

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.30
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.80
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.20
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.70
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

86%
FT probability

2.5+

60%
FT probability

3.5+

43%
FT probability

BTTS

68%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2-4
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric VfB Stuttgart Werder Bremen
HATHAT
Played151530151530
Wins73%40%57%33%20%27%
Draws13%20%17%27%20%23%
Loses13%40%27%40%60%50%
VfB StuttgartLWLWWWWWLWDLLWDWWDWWLWDWDWWLWL
Werder BremenLDWLLWDWDWLDLLDLDLLDLLLWWLWLLW

League goals

Metric VfB Stuttgart Werder Bremen
HATHAT
GF total263662181735
GF avg1.72.42.11.21.11.2
GA total142842262753
GA avg0.91.91.41.71.81.8

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineVfB StuttgartWerder Bremen
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.590%63%63%80%
1.557%47%30%53%
2.540%20%17%33%
3.517%7%7%10%
4.53%3%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricVfB StuttgartWerder Bremen
HATHAT
Clean sheets8311336
Failed to score3035611

Penalties

MetricVfB StuttgartWerder Bremen
Scored (total | %)4 | 100.00%3 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total43

Streaks

MetricVfB StuttgartWerder Bremen
Wins52
Draws11
Losses23

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins4-00-43-10-4
Biggest losses0-54-20-44-0
Goals For4534
Goals Against5444

Model comparison

MetricVfB StuttgartWerder Bremen
Form60%40%
Att67%33%
Def50%50%
Poisson Distribution71%29%
H2h50%50%
Goals63%38%
Total60.2%40.0%
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.61 @ 1xBet
Draw4.70 @ Betano
Away6.10 @ 1xBet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.47 @ Betano
Under 2.52.88 @ Betfair

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.53 @ William Hill
No2.50 @ Unibet
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League standings

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