Bundesliga
— Germany
Sat, May 2 2026 • 16:30 •
BayArena
Expected Goals
1.75 (league 1.64)
1.20 (league 1.47)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 49.3% | 23.6% | 26.1% |
best score tips
1 - 1
11.0%
2 - 1
9.6%
1 - 0
9.2%
Score & goals probability table
| RB Leipzig | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Bayer Leverkusen | 0 | 5.3% | 6.3% | 3.8% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 9.2% | 11.0% | 6.6% | 2.6% | 0.8% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 8.0% | 9.6% | 5.8% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 4.7% | 5.6% | 3.4% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 2.0% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home edge
Bayer Leverkusen carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 47 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Bayer Leverkusen +3.6, RB Leipzig +47.0.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Bayer Leverkusen
vs
RB Leipzig
Elo gapBayer Leverkusen +47
Home / draw / away43% / 25% / 32%
Expected home share57%
Combined Elo3300.5
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3300.5
Elo home share
57%
Match tone
Upset Watch
| Metric | Bayer Leverkusen | RB Leipzig |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1656 | 1644.5 |
| Form Elo | 1657.2 | 1671.1 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1540.8 | 1536.6 |
| Attack Elo | 1698.5 | 1722.5 |
| Defense Elo | 1617.7 | 1604.2 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +3.6 | +47.0 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Bayer Leverkusen last-5 Elo change: +3.6; RB Leipzig last-5 Elo change: +47.0.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Bayer Leverkusen | RB Leipzig |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 67% | 100% |
| Attack | 81% | 88% |
| Defense | 44% | 81% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 13 | 2.6 | 14 | 2.8 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 9 | 1.8 | 3 | 0.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
4.00
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.80
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.60
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.40
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
91%
FT probability
2.5+
64%
FT probability
3.5+
46%
FT probability
BTTS
75%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-3
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Bayer Leverkusen | RB Leipzig | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 15 | 16 | 31 | 16 | 15 | 31 |
| Wins | 53% | 50% | 52% | 69% | 53% | 61% |
| Draws | 20% | 25% | 23% | 13% | 20% | 16% |
| Loses | 27% | 25% | 26% | 19% | 27% | 23% |
Bayer LeverkusenLDWDWWWWLWWLLWWLLWWDWLDWDDDWWLW
RB LeipzigLWWWWDWWWLWDWLLWLWDLWDDWWLWWWWW
League goals
| Metric | Bayer Leverkusen | RB Leipzig | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 33 | 29 | 62 | 38 | 24 | 62 |
| GF avg | 2.2 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 2.0 |
| GA total | 17 | 25 | 42 | 19 | 19 | 38 |
| GA avg | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.2 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Bayer Leverkusen | RB Leipzig | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 87% | 74% | 90% | 65% |
| 1.5 | 52% | 35% | 58% | 26% |
| 2.5 | 35% | 23% | 26% | 16% |
| 3.5 | 13% | 3% | 10% | 6% |
| 4.5 | 6% | 0% | 10% | 6% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Bayer Leverkusen | RB Leipzig | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 6 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 11 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
Penalties
| Metric | Bayer Leverkusen | RB Leipzig |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 7 | 100.00% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 7 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | Bayer Leverkusen | RB Leipzig |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 4 | 4 |
| Draws | 3 | 2 |
| Losses | 2 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 6-0 | 1-3 | 6-0 | 0-6 |
| Biggest losses | 1-4 | 3-0 | 1-5 | 6-0 |
| Goals For | 6 | 4 | 6 | 6 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 3 | 5 | 6 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Bayer Leverkusen | RB Leipzig |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 40% | 60% |
| Att | 48% | 52% |
| Def | 25% | 75% |
| Poisson Distribution | 56% | 44% |
| H2h | 71% | 29% |
| Goals | 57% | 43% |
| Total | 49.5% | 50.5% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home2.13 @ 1xBet
Draw4.16 @ 1xBet
Away3.26 @ 1xBet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.40 @ Bet365
Under 2.53.05 @ Unibet
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.37 @ Betano
No3.05 @ Unibet
📊
League standings
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