Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 17:45 •
Stadion Mokri Dolac
Expected Goals
0.95 (league 1.33)
0.84 (league 0.97)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 36.6% | 33.0% | 30.4% |
best score tips
0 - 0
16.7%
1 - 0
15.9%
0 - 1
14.0%
Score & goals probability table
| FK Sarajevo | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Posušje | 0 | 16.7% | 14.0% | 5.9% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 15.8% | 13.3% | 5.6% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 7.5% | 6.3% | 2.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 2.4% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away strong edge
FK Sarajevo carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 105 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Posušje -1.1, FK Sarajevo +38.8.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Posušje
vs
FK Sarajevo
Elo gapFK Sarajevo +105
Home / draw / away29% / 18% / 53%
Expected home share35%
Combined Elo3057.1
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3057.1
Elo home share
35%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Posušje | FK Sarajevo |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1458.4 | 1598.7 |
| Form Elo | 1469.4 | 1614.7 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1477.7 | 1517.6 |
| Attack Elo | 1364.4 | 1565.9 |
| Defense Elo | 1515.4 | 1619.9 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -1.1 | +38.8 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Posušje last-5 Elo change: -1.1; FK Sarajevo last-5 Elo change: +38.8.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Posušje | FK Sarajevo |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 33% | 87% |
| Attack | 33% | 75% |
| Defense | 50% | 83% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 9 | 1.8 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 2 | 0.4 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.10
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.80
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.10
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.30
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
59%
FT probability
2.5+
42%
FT probability
3.5+
30%
FT probability
BTTS
56%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-4
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Posušje | FK Sarajevo | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 15 | 15 | 30 | 15 | 15 | 30 |
| Wins | 33% | 20% | 27% | 73% | 27% | 50% |
| Draws | 33% | 20% | 27% | 27% | 20% | 23% |
| Loses | 33% | 60% | 47% | 0% | 53% | 27% |
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FK SarajevoDLWLWLLWLDDWWWLDDWWWWWLDLWDWWW
League goals
| Metric | Posušje | FK Sarajevo | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 13 | 9 | 22 | 30 | 13 | 43 |
| GF avg | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 1.4 |
| GA total | 14 | 19 | 33 | 9 | 21 | 30 |
| GA avg | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 1.0 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Posušje | FK Sarajevo | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 53% | 67% | 77% | 50% |
| 1.5 | 13% | 30% | 40% | 33% |
| 2.5 | 3% | 13% | 17% | 7% |
| 3.5 | 3% | 0% | 10% | 7% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Posušje | FK Sarajevo | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 7 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 15 |
| Failed to score | 7 | 7 | 14 | 1 | 6 | 7 |
Penalties
| Metric | Posušje | FK Sarajevo |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 3 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 3 |
Streaks
| Metric | Posušje | FK Sarajevo |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 5 |
| Draws | 1 | 2 |
| Losses | 3 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-0 | 0-2 | 4-0 | 0-3 |
| Biggest losses | 0-3 | 3-0 | — | 5-1 |
| Goals For | 4 | 2 | 4 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Posušje | FK Sarajevo |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 28% | 72% |
| Att | 31% | 69% |
| Def | 25% | 75% |
| Poisson Distribution | 52% | 48% |
| H2h | 7% | 93% |
| Goals | 17% | 83% |
| Total | 26.7% | 73.3% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home3.25 @ Dafabet
Draw2.95 @ Dafabet
Away2.40 @ Betfair
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.52.55 @ Betfair
Under 2.51.50 @ Betfair
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes2.12 @ Marathonbet
No1.67 @ Betfair
📊
League standings
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