Mon, Apr 27 2026 • 18:45 •
Stade de la Libération
Expected Goals
1.12 (league 1.37)
2.01 (league 1.18)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 20.6% | 21.4% | 56.2% |
best score tips
1 - 2
9.9%
1 - 1
9.8%
0 - 2
8.8%
Score & goals probability table
| Dunkerque | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Boulogne | 0 | 4.4% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 5.9% | 3.0% | 1.2% |
| 1 | 4.9% | 9.8% | 9.9% | 6.6% | 3.3% | 1.3% | |
| 2 | 2.7% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 3.7% | 1.9% | 0.8% | |
| 3 | 1.0% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.3% | |
| 4 | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home lean
Boulogne carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 37 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Boulogne +9.3, Dunkerque -43.5.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Boulogne
vs
Dunkerque
Elo gapBoulogne +37
Home / draw / away41% / 26% / 33%
Expected home share55%
Combined Elo2989.2
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2989.2
Elo home share
55%
Match tone
Good Watch
| Metric | Boulogne | Dunkerque |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1495.8 | 1493.4 |
| Form Elo | 1499.5 | 1466.5 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1468.2 | 1491.2 |
| Attack Elo | 1435.5 | 1557.4 |
| Defense Elo | 1534.8 | 1505.7 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +9.3 | -43.5 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Boulogne last-5 Elo change: +9.3; Dunkerque last-5 Elo change: -43.5.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Boulogne | Dunkerque |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 40% | 7% |
| Attack | 7% | 20% |
| Defense | 93% | 27% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 1 | 0.2 | 3 | 0.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 1 | 0.2 | 11 | 2.2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.50
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.50
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.60
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.10
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
76%
FT probability
2.5+
54%
FT probability
3.5+
38%
FT probability
BTTS
69%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-3
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Boulogne | Dunkerque | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 15 | 16 | 31 | 16 | 15 | 31 |
| Wins | 27% | 31% | 29% | 31% | 33% | 32% |
| Draws | 20% | 38% | 29% | 44% | 20% | 32% |
| Loses | 53% | 31% | 42% | 25% | 47% | 35% |
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DunkerqueDDLWLDLWDLWWWDDWWWWLLDWDLDLLDLL
League goals
| Metric | Boulogne | Dunkerque | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 17 | 13 | 30 | 24 | 21 | 45 |
| GF avg | 1.1 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| GA total | 25 | 14 | 39 | 18 | 21 | 39 |
| GA avg | 1.7 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.3 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Boulogne | Dunkerque | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 61% | 71% | 74% | 81% |
| 1.5 | 23% | 35% | 39% | 32% |
| 2.5 | 10% | 10% | 19% | 6% |
| 3.5 | 3% | 3% | 6% | 3% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 3% | 3% | 3% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Boulogne | Dunkerque | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| Failed to score | 5 | 7 | 12 | 4 | 4 | 8 |
Penalties
| Metric | Boulogne | Dunkerque |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 3 | 100.00% | 4 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 3 | 4 |
Streaks
| Metric | Boulogne | Dunkerque |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 4 |
| Draws | 3 | 2 |
| Losses | 4 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-2 | 1-3 | 6-2 | 1-4 |
| Biggest losses | 2-6 | 3-0 | 1-3 | 5-1 |
| Goals For | 4 | 3 | 6 | 4 |
| Goals Against | 6 | 3 | 3 | 5 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Boulogne | Dunkerque |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 86% | 14% |
| Att | 25% | 75% |
| Def | 92% | 8% |
| Poisson Distribution | 38% | 62% |
| H2h | 29% | 71% |
| Goals | 44% | 56% |
| Total | 52.3% | 47.7% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home2.85 @ Dafabet
Draw3.35 @ Betano
Away2.55 @ BetVictor
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.52.18 @ Betano
Under 2.51.76 @ Marathonbet
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.85 @ Betano
No1.96 @ 1xBet
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League standings
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