Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 12:00 •
Stade des Alpes
Expected Goals
0.87 (league 1.37)
1.37 (league 1.18)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 23.9% | 27.6% | 48.2% |
best score tips
0 - 1
14.5%
1 - 1
12.7%
0 - 0
10.6%
Score & goals probability table
| Le Mans | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Grenoble | 0 | 10.6% | 14.6% | 10.0% | 4.6% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| 1 | 9.2% | 12.7% | 8.7% | 4.0% | 1.4% | 0.4% | |
| 2 | 4.0% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away strong edge
Le Mans carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 127 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Grenoble -17.7, Le Mans +27.7.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Grenoble
vs
Le Mans
Elo gapLe Mans +127
Home / draw / away27% / 18% / 55%
Expected home share33%
Combined Elo3086.9
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3086.9
Elo home share
33%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Grenoble | Le Mans |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1462.6 | 1624.3 |
| Form Elo | 1450.7 | 1634.7 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1488.3 | 1559.4 |
| Attack Elo | 1429.1 | 1577.8 |
| Defense Elo | 1506.4 | 1602.8 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -17.7 | +27.7 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Grenoble last-5 Elo change: -17.7; Le Mans last-5 Elo change: +27.7.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Grenoble | Le Mans |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 20% | 87% |
| Attack | 46% | 100% |
| Defense | 38% | 62% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 13 | 2.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 5 | 1 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.50
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.60
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.10
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.40
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
69%
FT probability
2.5+
48%
FT probability
3.5+
34%
FT probability
BTTS
64%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-4
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Grenoble | Le Mans | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 15 | 16 | 31 | 16 | 15 | 31 |
| Wins | 27% | 13% | 19% | 56% | 40% | 48% |
| Draws | 60% | 31% | 45% | 31% | 47% | 39% |
| Loses | 13% | 56% | 35% | 13% | 13% | 13% |
GrenobleLDLDWLLDWDLDWWLWDLLDWDDDDLDLDDL
Le MansDLWLLDWDDWWDWDWWWDDWWDLDDWWWWDW
League goals
| Metric | Grenoble | Le Mans | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 12 | 18 | 30 | 19 | 27 | 46 |
| GF avg | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.5 |
| GA total | 13 | 25 | 38 | 7 | 22 | 29 |
| GA avg | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 1.5 | 0.9 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Grenoble | Le Mans | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 65% | 74% | 81% | 55% |
| 1.5 | 23% | 35% | 39% | 26% |
| 2.5 | 6% | 13% | 19% | 10% |
| 3.5 | 3% | 0% | 10% | 3% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Grenoble | Le Mans | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 7 | 1 | 8 | 11 | 3 | 14 |
| Failed to score | 6 | 5 | 11 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
Penalties
| Metric | Grenoble | Le Mans |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 3 | 100.00% | 5 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 3 | 5 |
Streaks
| Metric | Grenoble | Le Mans |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 4 |
| Draws | 4 | 2 |
| Losses | 2 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 2-1 | 2-4 | 4-0 | 2-4 |
| Biggest losses | 0-3 | 3-1 | 1-2 | 4-2 |
| Goals For | 2 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Grenoble | Le Mans |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 19% | 81% |
| Att | 32% | 68% |
| Def | 38% | 62% |
| Poisson Distribution | 41% | 59% |
| H2h | 15% | 85% |
| Goals | 0% | 100% |
| Total | 29.0% | 71.0% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home4.05 @ Betano
Draw3.50 @ Marathonbet
Away2.00 @ Unibet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.52.01 @ SBO
Under 2.51.88 @ Marathonbet
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.80 @ Bet365
No2.00 @ Betfair
📊
League standings
Loading standings…