Sat, Sep 20 2025 • 15:00 • Red Bull Arena
Match Finished
Expected Goals
0.69 (league 1.43) 1.48 (league 1.28)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
17.4% 26.4% 55.8%
best score tips
0 - 1
16.9%
0 - 2
12.5%
1 - 1
11.7%
Score & goals probability table
Sturm Graz
0 1 2 3 4 5
Red Bull Salzburg 0 11.4% 16.9% 12.5% 6.2% 2.3% 0.7%
1 7.9% 11.7% 8.6% 4.3% 1.6% 0.5%
2 2.7% 4.0% 3.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.2%
3 0.6% 0.9% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
4 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricRed Bull SalzburgSturm Graz
Played55
Form67%60%
Attack87%60%
Defense60%73%
Goals For (tot | avg)13 | 2.69 | 1.8
Goals Against (tot | avg)6 | 1.24 | 0.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

4.30
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

6.00
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.10
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.00
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

95%
FT probability

2.5+

67%
FT probability

3.5+

48%
FT probability

BTTS

71%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

1 - 3 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Red Bull Salzburg Sturm Graz
HATHAT
Played336235
Wins67%33%50%0%100%60%
Draws33%33%33%0%0%0%
Loses0%33%17%100%0%40%

Form: Red Bull Salzburg: DWWWDL • Sturm Graz: WLWWL

League goals

Metric Red Bull Salzburg Sturm Graz
HATHAT
GF total10515189
GF avg3.31.72.50.52.71.8
GA total268314
GA avg0.72.01.31.50.30.8

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineRed Bull SalzburgSturm Graz
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.5100%67%80%60%
1.583%50%60%20%
2.533%17%40%0%
3.517%0%0%0%
4.517%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricRed Bull SalzburgSturm Graz
HATHAT
Clean sheets202022
Failed to score000101

Penalties

MetricRed Bull SalzburgSturm Graz
Scored (total | %)2 | 100.00%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total21

Streaks

MetricRed Bull SalzburgSturm Graz
Wins32
Draws10
Losses01

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins5-01-20-3
Biggest losses3-11-2
Goals For5213
Goals Against2321

Model comparison

MetricRed Bull SalzburgSturm Graz
Form53%47%
Att59%41%
Def40%60%
Poisson Distribution37%63%
H2h29%71%
Goals36%64%
Total42.3%57.7%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Sturm Graz

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.90 @ Pinnacle
Draw4.05 @ Marathonbet
Away3.86 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.64 @ 188Bet
No2.81 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.49 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.52.71 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Red Bull Salzburg = 0.69 (league 1.43), Sturm Graz = 1.48 (league 1.28)

Sturm Graz
0 1 2 3 4 5
Red Bull Salzburg 0 11.4% 16.9% 12.5% 6.2% 2.3% 0.7%
1 7.9% 11.7% 8.6% 4.3% 1.6% 0.5%
2 2.7% 4.0% 3.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.2%
3 0.6% 0.9% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
4 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 17.4% · Draw 26.4% · Away win 55.8%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1