Bundesliga — Austria
Sun, Sep 28 2025 • 12:30 • Merkur-Arena
Match Finished
Expected Goals
0.45 (league 1.44) 2.37 (league 1.26)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
5.4% 14.2% 77.0%
best score tips
0 - 2
16.7%
0 - 1
14.1%
0 - 3
13.2%
Score & goals probability table
TSV Hartberg
0 1 2 3 4 5
Sturm Graz 0 5.9% 14.1% 16.7% 13.2% 7.8% 3.7%
1 2.7% 6.4% 7.5% 6.0% 3.5% 1.7%
2 0.6% 1.4% 1.7% 1.3% 0.8% 0.4%
3 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1%
4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

🔮

Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricSturm GrazTSV Hartberg
Played55
Form60%47%
Attack100%100%
Defense33%0%
Goals For (tot | avg)9 | 1.88 | 1.6
Goals Against (tot | avg)4 | 0.86 | 1.2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.40
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.50
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.10
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.80
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

77%
FT probability

2.5+

54%
FT probability

3.5+

39%
FT probability

BTTS

70%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Sturm Graz TSV Hartberg
HATHAT
Played246347
Wins0%100%67%0%75%43%
Draws0%0%0%33%0%14%
Loses100%0%33%67%25%43%

Form: Sturm Graz: WLWWLW • TSV Hartberg: LWLWLWD

League goals

Metric Sturm Graz TSV Hartberg
HATHAT
GF total110113811
GF avg0.52.51.81.02.01.6
GA total3145510
GA avg1.50.30.71.71.31.4

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineSturm GrazTSV Hartberg
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.583%50%86%71%
1.567%17%57%43%
2.533%0%14%14%
3.50%0%0%14%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricSturm GrazTSV Hartberg
HATHAT
Clean sheets033022
Failed to score101101

Penalties

MetricSturm GrazTSV Hartberg
Scored (total | %)1 | 100.00%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total11

Streaks

MetricSturm GrazTSV Hartberg
Wins21
Draws00
Losses11

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins—0-3—1-3
Biggest losses1-2—1-24-2
Goals For1323
Goals Against2124

Model comparison

MetricSturm GrazTSV Hartberg
Form56%44%
Att53%47%
Def60%40%
Poisson Distribution16%84%
H2h85%15%
Goals69%31%
Total56.5%43.5%

Advice: Double chance : Sturm Graz or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.74 @ Pinnacle
Draw4.40 @ 188Bet
Away5.40 @ 188Bet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.84 @ SBO
Under 2.52.08 @ Unibet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.80 @ Bet365
No2.09 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Sturm Graz = 0.45 (league 1.44), TSV Hartberg = 2.37 (league 1.26)

TSV Hartberg
0 1 2 3 4 5
Sturm Graz 0 5.9% 14.1% 16.7% 13.2% 7.8% 3.7%
1 2.7% 6.4% 7.5% 6.0% 3.5% 1.7%
2 0.6% 1.4% 1.7% 1.3% 0.8% 0.4%
3 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1%
4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 5.4% · Draw 14.2% · Away win 77.0%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1