Bundesliga — Austria
Sun, Nov 23 2025 • 13:30 • Merkur-Arena
Match Finished
Expected Goals
0.72 (league 1.44) 0.78 (league 1.26)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
30.1% 36.7% 33.1%
best score tips
0 - 0
22.3%
0 - 1
17.3%
1 - 0
16.2%
Score & goals probability table
Lask Linz
0 1 2 3 4 5
Sturm Graz 0 22.3% 17.3% 6.7% 1.7% 0.3% 0.1%
1 16.2% 12.5% 4.9% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0%
2 5.8% 4.5% 1.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
3 1.4% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricSturm GrazLask Linz
Played55
Form47%87%
Attack64%57%
Defense36%79%
Goals For (tot | avg)9 | 1.88 | 1.6
Goals Against (tot | avg)9 | 1.83 | 0.6

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.90
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.50
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.40
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.70
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

68%
FT probability

2.5+

48%
FT probability

3.5+

34%
FT probability

BTTS

65%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Sturm Graz Lask Linz
HATHAT
Played57127613
Wins20%86%58%57%33%46%
Draws20%0%8%14%0%8%
Loses60%14%33%29%67%46%

Form: Sturm Graz: WLWWLWWWWLLD • Lask Linz: LLWLLLWLDWWWW

League goals

Metric Sturm Graz Lask Linz
HATHAT
GF total4172110414
GF avg0.82.41.81.40.71.1
GA total76139817
GA avg1.40.91.11.31.31.3

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineSturm GrazLask Linz
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.592%58%69%62%
1.550%33%31%38%
2.525%17%8%31%
3.58%0%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricSturm GrazLask Linz
HATHAT
Clean sheets145325
Failed to score101134

Penalties

MetricSturm GrazLask Linz
Scored (total | %)2 | 100.00%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total21

Streaks

MetricSturm GrazLask Linz
Wins41
Draws01
Losses23

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins1-00-32-00-2
Biggest losses1-32-11-33-0
Goals For1432
Goals Against3333

Model comparison

MetricSturm GrazLask Linz
Form35%65%
Att53%47%
Def25%75%
Poisson Distribution52%48%
H2h93%7%
Goals69%31%
Total54.5%45.5%

Advice: Double chance : Sturm Graz or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.08 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.75 @ Bet365
Away3.64 @ Marathonbet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.92 @ 188Bet
Under 2.52.16 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.77 @ 188Bet
No2.30 @ William Hill
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Sturm Graz = 0.72 (league 1.44), Lask Linz = 0.78 (league 1.26)

Lask Linz
0 1 2 3 4 5
Sturm Graz 0 22.3% 17.3% 6.7% 1.7% 0.3% 0.1%
1 16.2% 12.5% 4.9% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0%
2 5.8% 4.5% 1.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
3 1.4% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 30.1% · Draw 36.7% · Away win 33.1%

Vtot 12 , Vtod1