Bundesliga — Austria
Sun, Dec 7 2025 • 16:00 • Merkur-Arena
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.18 (league 1.44) 0.89 (league 1.28)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
42.5% 29.7% 27.6%
best score tips
1 - 0
14.8%
1 - 1
13.2%
0 - 0
12.5%
Score & goals probability table
Grazer AK
0 1 2 3 4 5
Sturm Graz 0 12.5% 11.2% 5.0% 1.5% 0.3% 0.1%
1 14.8% 13.2% 5.9% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1%
2 8.8% 7.8% 3.5% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0%
3 3.5% 3.1% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
4 1.0% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricSturm GrazGrazer AK
Played55
Form27%60%
Attack31%56%
Defense44%63%
Goals For (tot | avg)5 | 19 | 1.8
Goals Against (tot | avg)9 | 1.86 | 1.2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.60
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.50
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.00
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.80
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

78%
FT probability

2.5+

55%
FT probability

3.5+

39%
FT probability

BTTS

71%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Sturm Graz Grazer AK
HATHAT
Played78158715
Wins14%88%53%25%14%20%
Draws14%0%7%50%29%40%
Loses71%13%40%25%57%40%

Form: Sturm Graz: WLWWLWWWWLLDLWL • Grazer AK: DLDDLLDDLDLWLWW

League goals

Metric Sturm Graz Grazer AK
HATHAT
GF total6182411415
GF avg0.92.31.61.40.61.0
GA total13619121325
GA avg1.90.81.31.51.91.7

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineSturm GrazGrazer AK
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.593%60%60%87%
1.540%40%27%40%
2.520%27%13%27%
3.57%0%0%7%
4.50%0%0%7%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricSturm GrazGrazer AK
HATHAT
Clean sheets156112
Failed to score101246

Penalties

MetricSturm GrazGrazer AK
Scored (total | %)2 | 100.00%2 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total22

Streaks

MetricSturm GrazGrazer AK
Wins41
Draws12
Losses22

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins1-00-33-11-2
Biggest losses1-32-10-35-0
Goals For1432
Goals Against3335

Model comparison

MetricSturm GrazGrazer AK
Form31%69%
Att36%64%
Def40%60%
Poisson Distribution60%40%
H2h100%0%
Goals74%26%
Total48.2%51.8%

Advice: Double chance : Sturm Graz or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.90 @ 10Bet
Draw4.05 @ 188Bet
Away5.30 @ 188Bet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.21 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.94 @ 188Bet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.02 @ Unibet
No1.90 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Sturm Graz = 1.18 (league 1.44), Grazer AK = 0.89 (league 1.28)

Grazer AK
0 1 2 3 4 5
Sturm Graz 0 12.5% 11.2% 5.0% 1.5% 0.3% 0.1%
1 14.8% 13.2% 5.9% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1%
2 8.8% 7.8% 3.5% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0%
3 3.5% 3.1% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
4 1.0% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 42.5% · Draw 29.7% · Away win 27.6%

vtt 9 , vtd1