La Liga — Spain
Sun, Sep 21 2025 • 12:00 • Estadio de Vallecas
Match Finished
Expected Goals
0.69 (league 1.45) 0.85 (league 1.17)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
27.3% 35.9% 36.7%
best score tips
0 - 0
21.4%
0 - 1
18.2%
1 - 0
14.7%
Score & goals probability table
Celta Vigo
0 1 2 3 4 5
Rayo Vallecano 0 21.4% 18.2% 7.8% 2.2% 0.5% 0.1%
1 14.7% 12.6% 5.4% 1.5% 0.3% 0.1%
2 5.1% 4.3% 1.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
3 1.2% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricRayo VallecanoCelta Vigo
Played45
Form33%27%
Attack29%29%
Defense64%57%
Goals For (tot | avg)4 | 14 | 0.8
Goals Against (tot | avg)5 | 1.36 | 1.2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.80
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.00
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.50
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.00
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

59%
FT probability

2.5+

42%
FT probability

3.5+

30%
FT probability

BTTS

81%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Rayo Vallecano Celta Vigo
HATHAT
Played134415
Wins0%33%25%0%0%0%
Draws100%0%25%75%100%80%
Loses0%67%50%25%0%20%

Form: Rayo Vallecano: WLDL • Celta Vigo: LDDDD

League goals

Metric Rayo Vallecano Celta Vigo
HATHAT
GF total134314
GF avg1.01.01.00.81.00.8
GA total145516
GA avg1.01.31.31.31.01.2

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineRayo VallecanoCelta Vigo
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.550%100%80%100%
1.525%25%0%20%
2.525%0%0%0%
3.50%0%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricRayo VallecanoCelta Vigo
HATHAT
Clean sheets000000
Failed to score022101

Penalties

MetricRayo VallecanoCelta Vigo
Scored (total | %)1 | 100.00%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total11

Streaks

MetricRayo VallecanoCelta Vigo
Wins10
Draws10
Losses11

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins—1-3——
Biggest losses—2-00-2—
Goals For1311
Goals Against1221

Model comparison

MetricRayo VallecanoCelta Vigo
Form50%50%
Att50%50%
Def55%45%
Poisson Distribution42%58%
H2h62%38%
Goals44%56%
Total50.5%49.5%

Advice: Combo Double chance : Rayo Vallecano or draw and -3.5 goals

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.32 @ 1xBet
Draw3.40 @ Pinnacle
Away3.51 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.12 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.85 @ 1xBet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.83 @ Pinnacle
No2.05 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Rayo Vallecano = 0.69 (league 1.45), Celta Vigo = 0.85 (league 1.17)

Celta Vigo
0 1 2 3 4 5
Rayo Vallecano 0 21.4% 18.2% 7.8% 2.2% 0.5% 0.1%
1 14.7% 12.6% 5.4% 1.5% 0.3% 0.1%
2 5.1% 4.3% 1.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
3 1.2% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 27.3% · Draw 35.9% · Away win 36.7%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1