Wed, Sep 24 2025 • 19:30 • Riyadh Air Metropolitano
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.34 (league 1.46) 0.43 (league 1.17)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
59.6% 28.4% 11.8%
best score tips
1 - 0
22.9%
0 - 0
17.1%
2 - 0
15.3%
Score & goals probability table
Rayo Vallecano
0 1 2 3 4 5
Atletico Madrid 0 17.1% 7.3% 1.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
1 22.9% 9.8% 2.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
2 15.3% 6.6% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
3 6.8% 2.9% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 2.3% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricAtletico MadridRayo Vallecano
Played55
Form40%33%
Attack35%29%
Defense71%65%
Goals For (tot | avg)6 | 1.25 | 1
Goals Against (tot | avg)5 | 16 | 1.2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.20
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.50
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.20
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.80
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

62%
FT probability

2.5+

44%
FT probability

3.5+

31%
FT probability

BTTS

71%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

1 - 3 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Atletico Madrid Rayo Vallecano
HATHAT
Played235235
Wins50%0%20%0%33%20%
Draws50%67%60%100%0%40%
Loses0%33%20%0%67%40%

Form: Atletico Madrid: LDDWD • Rayo Vallecano: WLDLD

League goals

Metric Atletico Madrid Rayo Vallecano
HATHAT
GF total336235
GF avg1.51.01.21.01.01.0
GA total145246
GA avg0.51.31.01.01.31.2

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineAtletico MadridRayo Vallecano
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.5100%80%60%100%
1.520%20%20%20%
2.50%0%20%0%
3.50%0%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricAtletico MadridRayo Vallecano
HATHAT
Clean sheets101000
Failed to score000022

Penalties

MetricAtletico MadridRayo Vallecano
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total01

Streaks

MetricAtletico MadridRayo Vallecano
Wins11
Draws21
Losses11

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-01-3
Biggest losses2-12-0
Goals For2113
Goals Against1212

Model comparison

MetricAtletico MadridRayo Vallecano
Form55%45%
Att55%45%
Def55%45%
Poisson Distribution75%25%
H2h93%7%
Goals83%17%
Total69.3%30.7%

Advice: Double chance : Atletico Madrid or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.53 @ Betano
Draw4.50 @ 188Bet
Away7.70 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.03 @ SBO
Under 2.52.04 @ 1xBet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.11 @ Pinnacle
No1.85 @ William Hill
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Atletico Madrid = 1.34 (league 1.46), Rayo Vallecano = 0.43 (league 1.17)

Rayo Vallecano
0 1 2 3 4 5
Atletico Madrid 0 17.1% 7.3% 1.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
1 22.9% 9.8% 2.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
2 15.3% 6.6% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
3 6.8% 2.9% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 2.3% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 59.6% · Draw 28.4% · Away win 11.8%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1