Sat, Sep 27 2025 • 14:15 • Riyadh Air Metropolitano
Match Finished
Expected Goals
0.96 (league 1.46) 2.57 (league 1.17)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
11.9% 16.1% 67.3%
best score tips
0 - 2
9.7%
1 - 2
9.3%
0 - 3
8.3%
Score & goals probability table
Real Madrid
0 1 2 3 4 5
Atletico Madrid 0 2.9% 7.5% 9.7% 8.3% 5.3% 2.7%
1 2.8% 7.3% 9.3% 8.0% 5.1% 2.6%
2 1.4% 3.5% 4.5% 3.8% 2.5% 1.3%
3 0.4% 1.1% 1.4% 1.2% 0.8% 0.4%
4 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1%
5 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

🔮

Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricAtletico MadridReal Madrid
Played55
Form60%100%
Attack89%100%
Defense44%67%
Goals For (tot | avg)8 | 1.613 | 2.6
Goals Against (tot | avg)5 | 13 | 0.6

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.80
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

5.00
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.70
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.70
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

87%
FT probability

2.5+

61%
FT probability

3.5+

44%
FT probability

BTTS

79%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 3 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Atletico Madrid Real Madrid
HATHAT
Played336336
Wins67%0%33%100%100%100%
Draws33%67%50%0%0%0%
Loses0%33%17%0%0%0%

Form: Atletico Madrid: LDDWDW • Real Madrid: WWWWWW

League goals

Metric Atletico Madrid Real Madrid
HATHAT
GF total6395914
GF avg2.01.01.51.73.02.3
GA total347123
GA avg1.01.31.20.30.70.5

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineAtletico MadridReal Madrid
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.5100%83%100%50%
1.533%33%83%0%
2.517%0%33%0%
3.50%0%17%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricAtletico MadridReal Madrid
HATHAT
Clean sheets101213
Failed to score000000

Penalties

MetricAtletico MadridReal Madrid
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%2 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total02

Streaks

MetricAtletico MadridReal Madrid
Wins16
Draws20
Losses10

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-02-01-4
Biggest losses2-1
Goals For3124
Goals Against2211

Model comparison

MetricAtletico MadridReal Madrid
Form38%63%
Att38%62%
Def38%63%
Poisson Distribution26%74%
H2h50%50%
Goals50%50%
Total40.0%60.3%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Real Madrid

💸

Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home3.30 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.65 @ 188Bet
Away2.33 @ 1xBet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.82 @ 1xBet
Under 2.52.15 @ 1xBet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.64 @ Pinnacle
No2.35 @ 188Bet
Select to view full market tables.
📊

League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Atletico Madrid = 0.96 (league 1.46), Real Madrid = 2.57 (league 1.17)

Real Madrid
0 1 2 3 4 5
Atletico Madrid 0 2.9% 7.5% 9.7% 8.3% 5.3% 2.7%
1 2.8% 7.3% 9.3% 8.0% 5.1% 2.6%
2 1.4% 3.5% 4.5% 3.8% 2.5% 1.3%
3 0.4% 1.1% 1.4% 1.2% 0.8% 0.4%
4 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1%
5 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 11.9% · Draw 16.1% · Away win 67.3%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1