Sun, Sep 28 2025 • 12:00 • Campo de Futbol de Vallecas
Match Finished
Expected Goals
0.89 (league 1.46) 1.71 (league 1.17)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
19.4% 23.8% 55.9%
best score tips
0 - 1
12.7%
1 - 1
11.3%
0 - 2
10.8%
Score & goals probability table
Sevilla
0 1 2 3 4 5
Rayo Vallecano 0 7.4% 12.7% 10.8% 6.2% 2.6% 0.9%
1 6.6% 11.3% 9.7% 5.5% 2.4% 0.8%
2 3.0% 5.0% 4.3% 2.5% 1.1% 0.4%
3 0.9% 1.5% 1.3% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1%
4 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricRayo VallecanoSevilla
Played55
Form13%47%
Attack36%73%
Defense27%36%
Goals For (tot | avg)4 | 0.88 | 1.6
Goals Against (tot | avg)8 | 1.67 | 1.4

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.90
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.00
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.20
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.30
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

81%
FT probability

2.5+

57%
FT probability

3.5+

41%
FT probability

BTTS

83%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Rayo Vallecano Sevilla
HATHAT
Played246336
Wins0%25%17%0%67%33%
Draws100%0%33%33%0%17%
Loses0%75%50%67%33%50%

Form: Rayo Vallecano: WLDLDL • Sevilla: LLWDWL

League goals

Metric Rayo Vallecano Sevilla
HATHAT
GF total2574610
GF avg1.01.31.21.32.01.7
GA total2796410
GA avg1.01.81.52.01.31.7

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineRayo VallecanoSevilla
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.567%100%100%83%
1.533%33%67%67%
2.517%17%0%17%
3.50%0%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricRayo VallecanoSevilla
HATHAT
Clean sheets000011
Failed to score022000

Penalties

MetricRayo VallecanoSevilla
Scored (total | %)1 | 100.00%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total10

Streaks

MetricRayo VallecanoSevilla
Wins11
Draws11
Losses12

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins1-30-2
Biggest losses2-01-23-2
Goals For1322
Goals Against1323

Model comparison

MetricRayo VallecanoSevilla
Form22%78%
Att33%67%
Def47%53%
Poisson Distribution33%67%
H2h25%75%
Goals42%58%
Total33.7%66.3%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Sevilla

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.20 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.43 @ 1xBet
Away3.70 @ Unibet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.18 @ 1xBet
Under 2.51.84 @ 188Bet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.85 @ Unibet
No2.03 @ 188Bet
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Rayo Vallecano = 0.89 (league 1.46), Sevilla = 1.71 (league 1.17)

Sevilla
0 1 2 3 4 5
Rayo Vallecano 0 7.4% 12.7% 10.8% 6.2% 2.6% 0.9%
1 6.6% 11.3% 9.7% 5.5% 2.4% 0.8%
2 3.0% 5.0% 4.3% 2.5% 1.1% 0.4%
3 0.9% 1.5% 1.3% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1%
4 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 19.4% · Draw 23.8% · Away win 55.9%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1