Sat, Oct 4 2025 • 19:00 • Estadio Santiago Bernabéu
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.52 (league 1.46) 0.26 (league 1.17)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
69.4% 24.2% 5.9%
best score tips
1 - 0
25.7%
2 - 0
19.5%
0 - 0
17.0%
Score & goals probability table
Villarreal
0 1 2 3 4 5
Real Madrid 0 17.0% 4.3% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
1 25.7% 6.6% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
2 19.5% 5.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
3 9.9% 2.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4 3.8% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 1.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricReal MadridVillarreal
Played55
Form80%67%
Attack86%43%
Defense43%64%
Goals For (tot | avg)12 | 2.46 | 1.2
Goals Against (tot | avg)8 | 1.65 | 1

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

4.20
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.70
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.80
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.60
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

74%
FT probability

2.5+

52%
FT probability

3.5+

37%
FT probability

BTTS

70%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 3 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Real Madrid Villarreal
HATHAT
Played347437
Wins100%75%86%100%33%71%
Draws0%0%0%0%33%14%
Loses0%25%14%0%33%14%

Form: Real Madrid: WWWWWWL • Villarreal: WWDLWWW

League goals

Metric Real Madrid Villarreal
HATHAT
GF total5111610313
GF avg1.72.82.32.51.01.9
GA total178145
GA avg0.31.81.10.31.30.7

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineReal MadridVillarreal
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.5100%57%86%57%
1.586%14%57%14%
2.529%14%14%0%
3.514%14%14%0%
4.50%14%14%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricReal MadridVillarreal
HATHAT
Clean sheets213303
Failed to score000011

Penalties

MetricReal MadridVillarreal
Scored (total | %)2 | 100.00%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total20

Streaks

MetricReal MadridVillarreal
Wins62
Draws01
Losses01

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-01-45-01-2
Biggest losses5-22-0
Goals For2452
Goals Against1512

Model comparison

MetricReal MadridVillarreal
Form55%45%
Att67%33%
Def38%62%
Poisson Distribution83%17%
H2h71%29%
Goals61%39%
Total62.5%37.5%

Advice: Double chance : Real Madrid or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.47 @ 1xBet
Draw5.40 @ Unibet
Away7.40 @ Betano

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.47 @ Betano
Under 2.53.00 @ Unibet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.62 @ Bet365
No2.39 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Real Madrid = 1.52 (league 1.46), Villarreal = 0.26 (league 1.17)

Villarreal
0 1 2 3 4 5
Real Madrid 0 17.0% 4.3% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
1 25.7% 6.6% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
2 19.5% 5.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
3 9.9% 2.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4 3.8% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 1.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 69.4% · Draw 24.2% · Away win 5.9%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1