Sun, Oct 5 2025 • 16:30 • Estadio Municipal de Anoeta
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.61 (league 1.46) 1.45 (league 1.17)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
40.9% 24.0% 34.1%
best score tips
1 - 1
11.0%
2 - 1
8.8%
1 - 2
7.9%
Score & goals probability table
Rayo Vallecano
0 1 2 3 4 5
Real Sociedad 0 4.7% 6.8% 4.9% 2.4% 0.9% 0.2%
1 7.6% 11.0% 7.9% 3.8% 1.4% 0.4%
2 6.1% 8.8% 6.4% 3.1% 1.1% 0.3%
3 3.3% 4.7% 3.4% 1.6% 0.6% 0.2%
4 1.3% 1.9% 1.4% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1%
5 0.4% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricReal SociedadRayo Vallecano
Played55
Form20%13%
Attack27%27%
Defense47%47%
Goals For (tot | avg)4 | 0.84 | 0.8
Goals Against (tot | avg)8 | 1.68 | 1.6

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.00
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.60
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.00
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.10
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

76%
FT probability

2.5+

54%
FT probability

3.5+

38%
FT probability

BTTS

75%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Real Sociedad Rayo Vallecano
HATHAT
Played347347
Wins33%0%14%0%25%14%
Draws33%25%29%67%0%29%
Loses33%75%57%33%75%57%

Form: Real Sociedad: DDLLLWL • Rayo Vallecano: WLDLDLL

League goals

Metric Real Sociedad Rayo Vallecano
HATHAT
GF total437257
GF avg1.30.81.00.71.31.0
GA total47113710
GA avg1.31.81.61.01.81.4

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineReal SociedadRayo Vallecano
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.586%86%57%100%
1.514%57%29%29%
2.50%14%14%14%
3.50%0%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricReal SociedadRayo Vallecano
HATHAT
Clean sheets101000
Failed to score011123

Penalties

MetricReal SociedadRayo Vallecano
Scored (total | %)1 | 100.00%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total11

Streaks

MetricReal SociedadRayo Vallecano
Wins11
Draws21
Losses31

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins1-01-3
Biggest losses1-23-10-12-0
Goals For2113
Goals Against2313

Model comparison

MetricReal SociedadRayo Vallecano
Form60%40%
Att50%50%
Def50%50%
Poisson Distribution51%49%
H2h50%50%
Goals53%47%
Total52.3%47.7%

Advice: Double chance : Real Sociedad or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.23 @ 1xBet
Draw3.49 @ 1xBet
Away3.69 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.10 @ Unibet
Under 2.51.88 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.95 @ 188Bet
No2.02 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Real Sociedad = 1.61 (league 1.46), Rayo Vallecano = 1.45 (league 1.17)

Rayo Vallecano
0 1 2 3 4 5
Real Sociedad 0 4.7% 6.8% 4.9% 2.4% 0.9% 0.2%
1 7.6% 11.0% 7.9% 3.8% 1.4% 0.4%
2 6.1% 8.8% 6.4% 3.1% 1.1% 0.3%
3 3.3% 4.7% 3.4% 1.6% 0.6% 0.2%
4 1.3% 1.9% 1.4% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1%
5 0.4% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 40.9% · Draw 24.0% · Away win 34.1%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1