La Liga — Spain
Sun, Nov 9 2025 • 15:15 • Campo de Futbol de Vallecas
Match Finished
Expected Goals
0.77 (league 1.45) 1.70 (league 1.13)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
16.6% 23.7% 58.9%
best score tips
0 - 1
14.3%
0 - 2
12.2%
1 - 1
11.1%
Score & goals probability table
Real Madrid
0 1 2 3 4 5
Rayo Vallecano 0 8.4% 14.3% 12.2% 6.9% 3.0% 1.0%
1 6.5% 11.1% 9.4% 5.4% 2.3% 0.8%
2 2.5% 4.3% 3.6% 2.1% 0.9% 0.3%
3 0.6% 1.1% 0.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1%
4 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricRayo VallecanoReal Madrid
Played55
Form60%80%
Attack50%100%
Defense50%30%
Goals For (tot | avg)5 | 112 | 2.4
Goals Against (tot | avg)5 | 17 | 1.4

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.50
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.20
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.20
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.20
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

79%
FT probability

2.5+

56%
FT probability

3.5+

40%
FT probability

BTTS

71%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 3 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Rayo Vallecano Real Madrid
HATHAT
Played47116511
Wins25%43%36%100%80%91%
Draws50%0%18%0%0%0%
Loses25%57%45%0%20%9%

Form: Rayo Vallecano: WLDLDLLWWWL • Real Madrid: WWWWWWLWWWW

League goals

Metric Rayo Vallecano Real Madrid
HATHAT
GF total3912141226
GF avg0.81.31.12.32.42.4
GA total311143710
GA avg0.81.61.30.51.40.9

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineRayo VallecanoReal Madrid
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.564%73%100%55%
1.527%27%82%9%
2.518%18%36%9%
3.50%9%18%9%
4.50%0%0%9%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricRayo VallecanoReal Madrid
HATHAT
Clean sheets123325
Failed to score134000

Penalties

MetricRayo VallecanoReal Madrid
Scored (total | %)1 | 100.00%4 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total14

Streaks

MetricRayo VallecanoReal Madrid
Wins36
Draws10
Losses21

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins1-00-34-01-4
Biggest losses0-14-0—5-2
Goals For1344
Goals Against1415

Model comparison

MetricRayo VallecanoReal Madrid
Form43%57%
Att29%71%
Def58%42%
Poisson Distribution30%70%
H2h25%75%
Goals43%57%
Total38.0%62.0%

Advice: Winner : Real Madrid

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home7.04 @ Pinnacle
Draw5.14 @ Pinnacle
Away1.50 @ Betano

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.63 @ 1xBet
Under 2.52.58 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.74 @ Superbet
No2.20 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Rayo Vallecano = 0.77 (league 1.45), Real Madrid = 1.70 (league 1.13)

Real Madrid
0 1 2 3 4 5
Rayo Vallecano 0 8.4% 14.3% 12.2% 6.9% 3.0% 1.0%
1 6.5% 11.1% 9.4% 5.4% 2.3% 0.8%
2 2.5% 4.3% 3.6% 2.1% 0.9% 0.3%
3 0.6% 1.1% 0.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1%
4 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 16.6% · Draw 23.7% · Away win 58.9%

Vtot 50 , Vtod1