La Liga — Spain
Wed, Dec 3 2025 • 18:00 • Estadio de San Mamés
Match Finished
Expected Goals
0.98 (league 1.45) 1.52 (league 1.13)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
24.5% 25.8% 49.2%
best score tips
0 - 1
12.4%
1 - 1
12.2%
0 - 2
9.4%
Score & goals probability table
Real Madrid
0 1 2 3 4 5
Athletic Club 0 8.2% 12.4% 9.4% 4.8% 1.8% 0.5%
1 8.1% 12.2% 9.3% 4.7% 1.8% 0.5%
2 4.0% 6.0% 4.6% 2.3% 0.9% 0.3%
3 1.3% 2.0% 1.5% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1%
4 0.3% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricAthletic ClubReal Madrid
Played55
Form40%60%
Attack45%82%
Defense27%64%
Goals For (tot | avg)5 | 19 | 1.8
Goals Against (tot | avg)8 | 1.64 | 0.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.10
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.00
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.10
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.20
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

74%
FT probability

2.5+

52%
FT probability

3.5+

37%
FT probability

BTTS

68%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

1 - 3 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Athletic Club Real Madrid
HATHAT
Played77146814
Wins57%29%43%100%50%71%
Draws14%14%14%0%38%21%
Loses29%57%43%0%13%7%

Form: Athletic Club: WWWLLDLWDLLWLW • Real Madrid: WWWWWWLWWWWDDD

League goals

Metric Athletic Club Real Madrid
HATHAT
GF total8614141529
GF avg1.10.91.02.31.92.1
GA total6111731013
GA avg0.91.61.20.51.30.9

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineAthletic ClubReal Madrid
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.557%71%93%57%
1.536%29%71%14%
2.57%14%29%7%
3.50%7%14%7%
4.50%0%0%7%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricAthletic ClubReal Madrid
HATHAT
Clean sheets224336
Failed to score246011

Penalties

MetricAthletic ClubReal Madrid
Scored (total | %)3 | 100.00%5 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total35

Streaks

MetricAthletic ClubReal Madrid
Wins36
Draws10
Losses21

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-20-24-01-4
Biggest losses0-14-0—5-2
Goals For3244
Goals Against2415

Model comparison

MetricAthletic ClubReal Madrid
Form40%60%
Att36%64%
Def33%67%
Poisson Distribution40%60%
H2h29%71%
Goals30%70%
Total34.7%65.3%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Real Madrid

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home4.91 @ 1xBet
Draw4.20 @ Betano
Away1.76 @ 1xBet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.77 @ 1xBet
Under 2.52.22 @ 1xBet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.74 @ Pinnacle
No2.20 @ Betfair
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Athletic Club = 0.98 (league 1.45), Real Madrid = 1.52 (league 1.13)

Real Madrid
0 1 2 3 4 5
Athletic Club 0 8.2% 12.4% 9.4% 4.8% 1.8% 0.5%
1 8.1% 12.2% 9.3% 4.7% 1.8% 0.5%
2 4.0% 6.0% 4.6% 2.3% 0.9% 0.3%
3 1.3% 2.0% 1.5% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1%
4 0.3% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 24.5% · Draw 25.8% · Away win 49.2%

Vtot 37 , Vtod1