Sat, Feb 28 2026 • 13:00 • Campo de Futbol de Vallecas
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.14 (league 1.50) 0.70 (league 1.14)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
45.8% 31.4% 22.7%
best score tips
1 - 0
18.1%
0 - 0
15.9%
1 - 1
12.7%
Score & goals probability table
Athletic Club
0 1 2 3 4 5
Rayo Vallecano 0 15.9% 11.2% 3.9% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0%
1 18.1% 12.7% 4.5% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0%
2 10.3% 7.2% 2.5% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
3 3.9% 2.7% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
4 1.1% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricRayo VallecanoAthletic Club
Played55
Form27%67%
Attack43%71%
Defense36%50%
Goals For (tot | avg)6 | 1.210 | 2
Goals Against (tot | avg)9 | 1.87 | 1.4

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.10
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.00
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.70
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.50
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

66%
FT probability

2.5+

47%
FT probability

3.5+

33%
FT probability

BTTS

65%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Rayo Vallecano Athletic Club
HATHAT
Played111324131225
Wins27%23%25%54%25%40%
Draws55%15%33%15%17%16%
Loses18%62%42%31%58%44%

Form: Rayo Vallecano: WLDLDLLWWWLDDDLDLDWLLLWD • Athletic Club: WWWLLDLWDLLWLWLWLLDLLDWWW

League goals

Metric Rayo Vallecano Athletic Club
HATHAT
GF total111122171229
GF avg1.00.80.91.31.01.2
GA total92231152035
GA avg0.81.71.31.21.71.4

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineRayo VallecanoAthletic Club
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.558%71%68%80%
1.521%29%36%40%
2.513%21%8%16%
3.50%8%4%4%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricRayo VallecanoAthletic Club
HATHAT
Clean sheets437325
Failed to score3710358

Penalties

MetricRayo VallecanoAthletic Club
Scored (total | %)2 | 100.00%5 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total25

Streaks

MetricRayo VallecanoAthletic Club
Wins33
Draws31
Losses32

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-00-34-20-2
Biggest losses1-34-00-34-0
Goals For3342
Goals Against3434

Model comparison

MetricRayo VallecanoAthletic Club
Form29%71%
Att38%63%
Def44%56%
Poisson Distribution60%40%
H2h0%100%
Goals15%85%
Total37.2%63.0%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Athletic Club

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.56 @ 1xBet
Draw3.19 @ Pinnacle
Away3.21 @ 1xBet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.38 @ 1xBet
Under 2.51.68 @ 1xBet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.96 @ Pinnacle
No1.91 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Rayo Vallecano = 1.14 (league 1.50), Athletic Club = 0.70 (league 1.14)

Athletic Club
0 1 2 3 4 5
Rayo Vallecano 0 15.9% 11.2% 3.9% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0%
1 18.1% 12.7% 4.5% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0%
2 10.3% 7.2% 2.5% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
3 3.9% 2.7% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
4 1.1% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 45.8% · Draw 31.4% · Away win 22.7%

vtt 17 , vtd1