Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 19:00 •
Metropolitano Stadium
Expected Goals
2.44 (league 1.53)
0.71 (league 1.14)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 71.7% | 15.6% | 8.9% |
best score tips
2 - 0
12.8%
1 - 0
10.5%
3 - 0
10.4%
Score & goals probability table
| Athletic Club | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Atletico Madrid | 0 | 4.2% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 10.4% | 7.4% | 2.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 12.7% | 9.1% | 3.2% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 10.4% | 7.4% | 2.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 6.3% | 4.5% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 3.1% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Atletico Madrid carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 164 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Atletico Madrid -41.9, Athletic Club -11.2.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Atletico Madrid
vs
Athletic Club
Elo gapAtletico Madrid +164
Home / draw / away59% / 18% / 23%
Expected home share72%
Combined Elo3186
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3186
Elo home share
72%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Atletico Madrid | Athletic Club |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1657.3 | 1528.7 |
| Form Elo | 1630.7 | 1532.3 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1615 | 1470.7 |
| Attack Elo | 1773 | 1459.9 |
| Defense Elo | 1634.2 | 1526.7 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -41.9 | -11.2 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Atletico Madrid last-5 Elo change: -41.9; Athletic Club last-5 Elo change: -11.2.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Atletico Madrid | Athletic Club |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 20% | 40% |
| Attack | 47% | 27% |
| Defense | 33% | 47% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 4 | 0.8 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 10 | 2 | 8 | 1.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.80
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.10
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.50
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.60
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
79%
FT probability
2.5+
55%
FT probability
3.5+
39%
FT probability
BTTS
70%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-4
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Atletico Madrid | Athletic Club | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 16 | 16 | 32 | 17 | 15 | 32 |
| Wins | 81% | 25% | 53% | 53% | 20% | 38% |
| Draws | 6% | 31% | 19% | 12% | 20% | 16% |
| Loses | 13% | 44% | 28% | 35% | 60% | 47% |
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League goals
| Metric | Atletico Madrid | Athletic Club | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 35 | 18 | 53 | 21 | 13 | 34 |
| GF avg | 2.2 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 1.1 |
| GA total | 14 | 21 | 35 | 19 | 26 | 45 |
| GA avg | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.4 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Atletico Madrid | Athletic Club | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 88% | 63% | 66% | 81% |
| 1.5 | 44% | 34% | 31% | 41% |
| 2.5 | 25% | 13% | 6% | 16% |
| 3.5 | 6% | 0% | 3% | 3% |
| 4.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Atletico Madrid | Athletic Club | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 7 | 5 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 11 |
Penalties
| Metric | Atletico Madrid | Athletic Club |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 2 | 100.00% | 5 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 2 | 5 |
Streaks
| Metric | Atletico Madrid | Athletic Club |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 6 | 3 |
| Draws | 2 | 1 |
| Losses | 2 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 5-2 | 0-3 | 4-2 | 0-2 |
| Biggest losses | 1-2 | 3-0 | 0-3 | 4-0 |
| Goals For | 5 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Atletico Madrid | Athletic Club |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 33% | 67% |
| Att | 64% | 36% |
| Def | 44% | 56% |
| Poisson Distribution | 78% | 22% |
| H2h | 60% | 40% |
| Goals | 50% | 50% |
| Total | 54.8% | 45.2% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home2.39 @ 1xBet
Draw3.75 @ Bet365
Away3.30 @ Betfair
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.96 @ 1xBet
Under 2.51.98 @ 1xBet
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.75 @ William Hill
No2.10 @ 10Bet
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League standings
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