Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 12:00 •
Campo de Futbol de Vallecas
Expected Goals
1.15 (league 1.53)
0.68 (league 1.14)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 46.9% | 31.3% | 21.7% |
best score tips
1 - 0
18.5%
0 - 0
16.1%
1 - 1
12.5%
Score & goals probability table
| Real Sociedad | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Rayo Vallecano | 0 | 16.1% | 10.9% | 3.7% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 18.5% | 12.5% | 4.3% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 10.6% | 7.2% | 2.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 4.1% | 2.8% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home lean
Rayo Vallecano carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 39 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Rayo Vallecano -8.8, Real Sociedad -12.1.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Rayo Vallecano
vs
Real Sociedad
Elo gapRayo Vallecano +39
Home / draw / away42% / 26% / 32%
Expected home share56%
Combined Elo3174
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3174
Elo home share
56%
Match tone
Good Watch
| Metric | Rayo Vallecano | Real Sociedad |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1588.9 | 1585.1 |
| Form Elo | 1592.3 | 1577.2 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1555.2 | 1514.5 |
| Attack Elo | 1573.8 | 1607.7 |
| Defense Elo | 1618.8 | 1502.1 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -8.8 | -12.1 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Rayo Vallecano last-5 Elo change: -8.8; Real Sociedad last-5 Elo change: -12.1.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Rayo Vallecano | Real Sociedad |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 47% | 47% |
| Attack | 43% | 100% |
| Defense | 29% | 0% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 3 | 0.6 | 9 | 1.8 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 8 | 1.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.40
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.20
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.70
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.30
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
69%
FT probability
2.5+
48%
FT probability
3.5+
34%
FT probability
BTTS
72%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-4
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Rayo Vallecano | Real Sociedad | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 16 | 16 | 32 | 17 | 15 | 32 |
| Wins | 38% | 19% | 28% | 47% | 20% | 34% |
| Draws | 50% | 19% | 34% | 24% | 33% | 28% |
| Loses | 13% | 63% | 38% | 29% | 47% | 38% |
Rayo VallecanoWLDLDLLWWWLDDDLDLDWLLLWDDWDDLWLW
Real SociedadDDLLLWLLDWWDWLLLDDWWWDWLDWLWLWDL
League goals
| Metric | Rayo Vallecano | Real Sociedad | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 18 | 12 | 30 | 32 | 17 | 49 |
| GF avg | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 1.5 |
| GA total | 11 | 27 | 38 | 25 | 24 | 49 |
| GA avg | 0.7 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.5 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Rayo Vallecano | Real Sociedad | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 63% | 69% | 88% | 91% |
| 1.5 | 19% | 25% | 44% | 38% |
| 2.5 | 13% | 19% | 22% | 22% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 6% | 0% | 3% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Rayo Vallecano | Real Sociedad | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 7 | 3 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| Failed to score | 3 | 9 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
Penalties
| Metric | Rayo Vallecano | Real Sociedad |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 3 | 100.00% | 6 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 3 | 6 |
Streaks
| Metric | Rayo Vallecano | Real Sociedad |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 3 |
| Draws | 3 | 2 |
| Losses | 3 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-0 | 0-3 | 3-1 | 1-3 |
| Biggest losses | 1-3 | 4-0 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Goals For | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Rayo Vallecano | Real Sociedad |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 50% | 50% |
| Att | 25% | 75% |
| Def | 62% | 38% |
| Poisson Distribution | 62% | 38% |
| H2h | 62% | 38% |
| Goals | 50% | 50% |
| Total | 51.8% | 48.2% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home2.82 @ 1xBet
Draw3.39 @ 1xBet
Away2.73 @ 1xBet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.52.01 @ 1xBet
Under 2.51.93 @ 1xBet
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.75 @ William Hill
No2.10 @ Unibet
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League standings
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