Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 14:15 •
Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere
Expected Goals
0.69 (league 1.53)
0.71 (league 1.14)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 30.0% | 38.3% | 31.7% |
best score tips
0 - 0
24.7%
0 - 1
17.6%
1 - 0
16.9%
Score & goals probability table
| Elche | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Oviedo | 0 | 24.7% | 17.6% | 6.3% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 16.9% | 12.1% | 4.3% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 5.8% | 4.1% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Balanced Elo outlook
Elo reads this fixture as balanced. There is no strong structural separation before kickoff. Recent Elo movement: Oviedo +35.4, Elche +21.4.
Thin confidence
Upset risk: High
Elo standalone
Oviedo
vs
Elche
Elo gapElche +5
Home / draw / away35% / 29% / 36%
Expected home share49%
Combined Elo3033.8
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Balanced Elo outlook
Confidence band
Thin confidence
Upset risk
High
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3033.8
Elo home share
49%
Match tone
Upset Watch
| Metric | Oviedo | Elche |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1496.7 | 1537.1 |
| Form Elo | 1511 | 1539.7 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1507.7 | 1472 |
| Attack Elo | 1408.7 | 1560 |
| Defense Elo | 1539.5 | 1535.2 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +35.4 | +21.4 |
The rating gap is narrow, so this is better treated as a volatile matchup than a banker spot. Oviedo last-5 Elo change: +35.4; Elche last-5 Elo change: +21.4.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Oviedo | Elche |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 67% | 60% |
| Attack | 53% | 47% |
| Defense | 67% | 47% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 7 | 1.4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 8 | 1.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.10
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.40
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.00
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.00
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
68%
FT probability
2.5+
48%
FT probability
3.5+
34%
FT probability
BTTS
65%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-4
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Oviedo | Elche | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 15 | 16 | 31 | 17 | 15 | 32 |
| Wins | 27% | 13% | 19% | 47% | 0% | 25% |
| Draws | 33% | 25% | 29% | 41% | 27% | 34% |
| Loses | 40% | 63% | 52% | 12% | 73% | 41% |
OviedoLLWLLLWLLDDLDLDLDDDLLWLDLLDWLWW
ElcheDDWDWDWLDLLDDLWLWLDDLLLDLDLLWLWW
League goals
| Metric | Oviedo | Elche | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 7 | 17 | 24 | 28 | 14 | 42 |
| GF avg | 0.5 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 1.3 |
| GA total | 14 | 34 | 48 | 18 | 31 | 49 |
| GA avg | 0.9 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 2.1 | 1.5 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Oviedo | Elche | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 48% | 71% | 84% | 78% |
| 1.5 | 19% | 48% | 34% | 47% |
| 2.5 | 10% | 29% | 9% | 25% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 6% | 3% | 3% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Oviedo | Elche | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 8 | 1 | 9 | 7 | 0 | 7 |
| Failed to score | 8 | 8 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
Penalties
| Metric | Oviedo | Elche |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 2 | 100.00% | 3 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 2 | 3 |
Streaks
| Metric | Oviedo | Elche |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 1 |
| Draws | 3 | 2 |
| Losses | 3 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 1-0 | 0-3 | 4-0 | — |
| Biggest losses | 0-3 | 4-0 | 1-3 | 4-1 |
| Goals For | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Oviedo | Elche |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 53% | 47% |
| Att | 53% | 47% |
| Def | 62% | 38% |
| Poisson Distribution | 44% | 56% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 43% | 57% |
| Total | 50.8% | 49.2% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home2.47 @ 1xBet
Draw3.64 @ 1xBet
Away3.10 @ Unibet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.52.14 @ 1xBet
Under 2.51.83 @ 1xBet
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.91 @ Bet365
No1.95 @ William Hill
📊
League standings
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