Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 15:00 •
Obolon Arena
Expected Goals
0.69 (league 1.22)
2.43 (league 1.15)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 8.6% | 15.5% | 72.1% |
best score tips
0 - 2
13.1%
0 - 1
10.8%
0 - 3
10.6%
Score & goals probability table
| Shakhtar Donetsk | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Kudrivka | 0 | 4.4% | 10.8% | 13.1% | 10.6% | 6.4% | 3.1% |
| 1 | 3.0% | 7.4% | 9.0% | 7.3% | 4.4% | 2.1% | |
| 2 | 1.0% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.7% | |
| 3 | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away strong edge
Shakhtar Donetsk carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 291 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Kudrivka -27.4, Shakhtar Donetsk +22.5.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Kudrivka
vs
Shakhtar Donetsk
Elo gapShakhtar Donetsk +291
Home / draw / away13% / 18% / 69%
Expected home share16%
Combined Elo3159.4
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3159.4
Elo home share
16%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Kudrivka | Shakhtar Donetsk |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1416.9 | 1742.5 |
| Form Elo | 1407.5 | 1762.3 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1481.5 | 1640.2 |
| Attack Elo | 1422.1 | 1847.7 |
| Defense Elo | 1513.9 | 1735 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -27.4 | +22.5 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Kudrivka last-5 Elo change: -27.4; Shakhtar Donetsk last-5 Elo change: +22.5.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Kudrivka | Shakhtar Donetsk |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 7% | 87% |
| Attack | 8% | 75% |
| Defense | 50% | 75% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 1 | 0.2 | 9 | 1.8 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 3 | 0.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.30
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.40
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.20
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.00
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
78%
FT probability
2.5+
55%
FT probability
3.5+
39%
FT probability
BTTS
67%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-3
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Kudrivka | Shakhtar Donetsk | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 12 | 12 | 24 | 13 | 11 | 24 |
| Wins | 33% | 8% | 21% | 85% | 55% | 71% |
| Draws | 33% | 17% | 25% | 8% | 45% | 25% |
| Loses | 33% | 75% | 54% | 8% | 0% | 4% |
KudrivkaWLWDLLWLDLWLLLLDDWDDLLLL
Shakhtar DonetskWDWWDWWLDWWWWDDWWWWWWDWW
League goals
| Metric | Kudrivka | Shakhtar Donetsk | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 17 | 8 | 25 | 34 | 22 | 56 |
| GF avg | 1.4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 2.3 |
| GA total | 17 | 22 | 39 | 8 | 7 | 15 |
| GA avg | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Kudrivka | Shakhtar Donetsk | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 67% | 88% | 92% | 33% |
| 1.5 | 29% | 50% | 58% | 17% |
| 2.5 | 8% | 17% | 38% | 8% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 8% | 21% | 4% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 13% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Kudrivka | Shakhtar Donetsk | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 7 | 16 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 6 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
Penalties
| Metric | Kudrivka | Shakhtar Donetsk |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 5 | 100.00% | 5 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 5 | 5 |
Streaks
| Metric | Kudrivka | Shakhtar Donetsk |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 6 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 4 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-1 | 0-2 | 7-1 | 0-6 |
| Biggest losses | 1-3 | 4-0 | 1-4 | — |
| Goals For | 3 | 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Kudrivka | Shakhtar Donetsk |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 7% | 93% |
| Att | 10% | 90% |
| Def | 33% | 67% |
| Poisson Distribution | 23% | 77% |
| H2h | 0% | 100% |
| Goals | 0% | 100% |
| Total | 18.3% | 81.8% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home23.00 @ William Hill
Draw7.21 @ Pinnacle
Away1.18 @ Betano
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.57 @ 10Bet
Under 2.52.40 @ Betfair
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes2.40 @ Marathonbet
No1.55 @ William Hill
📊
League standings
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