Sun, Dec 14 2025 • 17:30 • UD Almería Stadium
Match Finished
1 - 2
Expected Goals
1.81 (league 1.46) 1.91 (league 1.10)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
36.1% 21.5% 40.0%
best score tips
1 - 1
8.4%
1 - 2
8.0%
2 - 1
7.6%
Score & goals probability table
Burgos
0 1 2 3 4 5
Almeria 0 2.4% 4.6% 4.4% 2.8% 1.4% 0.5%
1 4.4% 8.4% 8.0% 5.1% 2.4% 0.9%
2 4.0% 7.6% 7.2% 4.6% 2.2% 0.8%
3 2.4% 4.6% 4.4% 2.8% 1.3% 0.5%
4 1.1% 2.1% 2.0% 1.3% 0.6% 0.2%
5 0.4% 0.7% 0.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricAlmeriaBurgos
Played55
Form67%27%
Attack77%15%
Defense69%69%
Goals For (tot | avg)10 | 22 | 0.4
Goals Against (tot | avg)4 | 0.84 | 0.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.10
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.90
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.20
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.50
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

84%
FT probability

2.5+

59%
FT probability

3.5+

42%
FT probability

BTTS

71%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 5 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Almeria Burgos
HATHAT
Played89179817
Wins63%44%53%33%50%41%
Draws25%33%29%33%13%24%
Loses13%22%18%33%38%35%

Form: Almeria: DWDLLWWDWDWWWWLDW • Burgos: WDLDWDWLLWWWDWLLL

League goals

Metric Almeria Burgos
HATHAT
GF total19143391221
GF avg2.41.61.91.01.51.2
GA total1111227916
GA avg1.41.21.30.81.10.9

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineAlmeriaBurgos
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.594%65%59%71%
1.559%35%35%24%
2.529%24%18%0%
3.512%6%6%0%
4.50%0%6%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricAlmeriaBurgos
HATHAT
Clean sheets336325
Failed to score101527

Penalties

MetricAlmeriaBurgos
Scored (total | %)4 | 100.00%6 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total46

Streaks

MetricAlmeriaBurgos
Wins43
Draws11
Losses22

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-00-35-11-3
Biggest losses2-33-10-22-1
Goals For4353
Goals Against4322

Model comparison

MetricAlmeriaBurgos
Form71%29%
Att83%17%
Def50%50%
Poisson Distribution53%47%
H2h75%25%
Goals70%30%
Total67.0%33.0%

Advice: Double chance : Almeria or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.75 @ 188Bet
Draw3.70 @ Pinnacle
Away5.28 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.29 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.67 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.20 @ Bet365
No1.76 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Almeria = 1.81 (league 1.46), Burgos = 1.91 (league 1.10)

Burgos
0 1 2 3 4 5
Almeria 0 2.4% 4.6% 4.4% 2.8% 1.4% 0.5%
1 4.4% 8.4% 8.0% 5.1% 2.4% 0.9%
2 4.0% 7.6% 7.2% 4.6% 2.2% 0.8%
3 2.4% 4.6% 4.4% 2.8% 1.3% 0.5%
4 1.1% 2.1% 2.0% 1.3% 0.6% 0.2%
5 0.4% 0.7% 0.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 36.1% · Draw 21.5% · Away win 40.0%

Vtot 6 , Vtod1