Sun, Dec 21 2025 • 13:00 • Estadio La Rosaleda
Match Finished
2 - 1
Expected Goals
1.57 (league 1.45) 1.59 (league 1.10)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
37.1% 23.6% 38.2%
best score tips
1 - 1
10.6%
1 - 2
8.4%
2 - 1
8.3%
Score & goals probability table
Almeria
0 1 2 3 4 5
Malaga 0 4.2% 6.8% 5.4% 2.9% 1.1% 0.4%
1 6.6% 10.6% 8.4% 4.5% 1.8% 0.6%
2 5.2% 8.3% 6.6% 3.5% 1.4% 0.4%
3 2.7% 4.3% 3.5% 1.8% 0.7% 0.2%
4 1.1% 1.7% 1.4% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1%
5 0.3% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricMalagaAlmeria
Played55
Form53%47%
Attack73%73%
Defense45%45%
Goals For (tot | avg)8 | 1.68 | 1.6
Goals Against (tot | avg)6 | 1.26 | 1.2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.20
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.50
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.60
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.30
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

83%
FT probability

2.5+

58%
FT probability

3.5+

41%
FT probability

BTTS

77%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Malaga Almeria
HATHAT
Played99189918
Wins44%22%33%56%44%50%
Draws44%11%28%22%33%28%
Loses11%67%39%22%22%22%

Form: Malaga: DWWDLLLLWLWLDLWDDW • Almeria: DWDLLWWDWDWWWWLDWL

League goals

Metric Malaga Almeria
HATHAT
GF total17724201434
GF avg1.90.81.32.21.61.9
GA total101323131124
GA avg1.11.41.31.41.21.3

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineMalagaAlmeria
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.572%83%94%67%
1.533%39%56%39%
2.522%6%28%22%
3.56%0%11%6%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricMalagaAlmeria
HATHAT
Clean sheets213336
Failed to score145101

Penalties

MetricMalagaAlmeria
Scored (total | %)2 | 100.00%4 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total24

Streaks

MetricMalagaAlmeria
Wins24
Draws21
Losses42

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins4-11-33-00-3
Biggest losses0-13-02-33-1
Goals For4343
Goals Against2343

Model comparison

MetricMalagaAlmeria
Form53%47%
Att50%50%
Def50%50%
Poisson Distribution54%46%
H2h62%38%
Goals55%45%
Total54.0%46.0%

Advice: Double chance : Malaga or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.96 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.35 @ 188Bet
Away2.57 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.01 @ 188Bet
Under 2.51.92 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.76 @ 188Bet
No2.25 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Malaga = 1.57 (league 1.45), Almeria = 1.59 (league 1.10)

Almeria
0 1 2 3 4 5
Malaga 0 4.2% 6.8% 5.4% 2.9% 1.1% 0.4%
1 6.6% 10.6% 8.4% 4.5% 1.8% 0.6%
2 5.2% 8.3% 6.6% 3.5% 1.4% 0.4%
3 2.7% 4.3% 3.5% 1.8% 0.7% 0.2%
4 1.1% 1.7% 1.4% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1%
5 0.3% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 37.1% · Draw 23.6% · Away win 38.2%

vtt 14 , vtd1