Fri, Jan 23 2026 • 19:30 • Estadio La Rosaleda
Match Finished
3 - 0
Expected Goals
1.54 (league 1.48) 1.37 (league 1.12)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
41.0% 24.6% 33.6%
best score tips
1 - 1
11.5%
2 - 1
8.9%
1 - 0
8.4%
Score & goals probability table
Burgos
0 1 2 3 4 5
Malaga 0 5.4% 7.5% 5.1% 2.3% 0.8% 0.2%
1 8.4% 11.5% 7.9% 3.6% 1.2% 0.3%
2 6.5% 8.9% 6.1% 2.8% 0.9% 0.3%
3 3.3% 4.5% 3.1% 1.4% 0.5% 0.1%
4 1.3% 1.8% 1.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1%
5 0.4% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricMalagaBurgos
Played55
Form100%67%
Attack100%63%
Defense50%50%
Goals For (tot | avg)11 | 2.25 | 1
Goals Against (tot | avg)4 | 0.84 | 0.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.70
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.30
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.10
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.30
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

74%
FT probability

2.5+

52%
FT probability

3.5+

37%
FT probability

BTTS

72%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Malaga Burgos
HATHAT
Played111122121022
Wins55%36%45%42%50%45%
Draws36%9%23%33%10%23%
Loses9%55%32%25%40%32%

Form: Malaga: DWWDLLLLWLWLDLWDDWWWWW • Burgos: WDLDWDWLLWWWDWLLLWDLWW

League goals

Metric Malaga Burgos
HATHAT
GF total211132121426
GF avg1.91.01.51.01.41.2
GA total12142681220
GA avg1.11.31.20.71.20.9

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineMalagaBurgos
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.577%82%64%68%
1.541%32%32%23%
2.523%5%14%0%
3.55%0%5%0%
4.50%0%5%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricMalagaBurgos
HATHAT
Clean sheets224527
Failed to score145538

Penalties

MetricMalagaBurgos
Scored (total | %)3 | 100.00%7 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total37

Streaks

MetricMalagaBurgos
Wins23
Draws21
Losses43

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins4-11-35-11-3
Biggest losses0-13-00-22-0
Goals For4353
Goals Against2322

Model comparison

MetricMalagaBurgos
Form60%40%
Att69%31%
Def50%50%
Poisson Distribution57%43%
H2h25%75%
Goals40%60%
Total50.2%49.8%

Advice: Double chance : Malaga or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.14 @ Dafabet
Draw3.07 @ Pinnacle
Away4.28 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.67 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.55 @ 1xBet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.24 @ 188Bet
No1.71 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Malaga = 1.54 (league 1.48), Burgos = 1.37 (league 1.12)

Burgos
0 1 2 3 4 5
Malaga 0 5.4% 7.5% 5.1% 2.3% 0.8% 0.2%
1 8.4% 11.5% 7.9% 3.6% 1.2% 0.3%
2 6.5% 8.9% 6.1% 2.8% 0.9% 0.3%
3 3.3% 4.5% 3.1% 1.4% 0.5% 0.1%
4 1.3% 1.8% 1.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1%
5 0.4% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 41.0% · Draw 24.6% · Away win 33.6%

vtt 6 , vtd1