Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 19:00 •
Estadio La Rosaleda
Expected Goals
1.82 (league 1.50)
1.28 (league 1.12)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 49.0% | 22.9% | 26.8% |
best score tips
1 - 1
10.5%
2 - 1
9.5%
1 - 0
8.2%
Score & goals probability table
| Castellón | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Malaga | 0 | 4.5% | 5.8% | 3.7% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 8.2% | 10.5% | 6.7% | 2.9% | 0.9% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 7.4% | 9.5% | 6.1% | 2.6% | 0.8% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 4.5% | 5.8% | 3.7% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 2.1% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home lean
Malaga carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 33 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Malaga -2.5, Castellón +30.8.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Malaga
vs
Castellón
Elo gapMalaga +33
Home / draw / away41% / 26% / 33%
Expected home share55%
Combined Elo3168.8
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3168.8
Elo home share
55%
Match tone
Upset Watch
| Metric | Malaga | Castellón |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1583.5 | 1585.3 |
| Form Elo | 1594.5 | 1584.9 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1567 | 1494.8 |
| Attack Elo | 1614.6 | 1631.5 |
| Defense Elo | 1544.2 | 1531.4 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -2.5 | +30.8 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Malaga last-5 Elo change: -2.5; Castellón last-5 Elo change: +30.8.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Malaga | Castellón |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 40% | 73% |
| Attack | 40% | 55% |
| Defense | 65% | 70% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 11 | 2.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 6 | 1.2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.40
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.40
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.40
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.40
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
83%
FT probability
2.5+
58%
FT probability
3.5+
41%
FT probability
BTTS
71%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-4
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Malaga | Castellón | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 18 | 18 | 36 | 18 | 18 | 36 |
| Wins | 61% | 33% | 47% | 67% | 28% | 47% |
| Draws | 33% | 17% | 25% | 17% | 39% | 28% |
| Loses | 6% | 50% | 28% | 17% | 33% | 25% |
MalagaDWWDLLLLWLWLDLWDDWWWWWWLWLWWDWWDDDWL
CastellónLLDLDWWWDLLWDWWWWWLWDWDWWWDLLLDDWWDW
League goals
| Metric | Malaga | Castellón | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 37 | 23 | 60 | 38 | 23 | 61 |
| GF avg | 2.1 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 1.7 |
| GA total | 19 | 25 | 44 | 21 | 23 | 44 |
| GA avg | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.2 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Malaga | Castellón | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 83% | 72% | 78% | 69% |
| 1.5 | 47% | 36% | 50% | 28% |
| 2.5 | 28% | 14% | 31% | 17% |
| 3.5 | 6% | 0% | 8% | 8% |
| 4.5 | 3% | 0% | 3% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Malaga | Castellón | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 6 | 4 | 10 | 5 | 6 | 11 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 8 |
Penalties
| Metric | Malaga | Castellón |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 6 | 100.00% | 6 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 6 | 6 |
Streaks
| Metric | Malaga | Castellón |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 6 | 5 |
| Draws | 3 | 2 |
| Losses | 4 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-1 | 0-3 | 4-1 | 0-4 |
| Biggest losses | 0-1 | 3-0 | 1-3 | 4-1 |
| Goals For | 5 | 3 | 5 | 4 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Malaga | Castellón |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 35% | 65% |
| Att | 42% | 58% |
| Def | 46% | 54% |
| Poisson Distribution | 61% | 39% |
| H2h | 20% | 80% |
| Goals | 30% | 70% |
| Total | 39.0% | 61.0% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home2.82 @ 1xBet
Draw3.50 @ BetVictor
Away2.70 @ Unibet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.74 @ Unibet
Under 2.52.38 @ Marathonbet
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.57 @ William Hill
No2.63 @ 1xBet
📊
League standings
Loading standings…