Mon, Apr 27 2026 • 18:30 •
JP Financial Estadio
Expected Goals
0.66 (league 1.50)
1.25 (league 1.12)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 19.7% | 29.9% | 50.2% |
best score tips
0 - 1
18.5%
0 - 0
14.9%
1 - 1
12.2%
Score & goals probability table
| Las Palmas | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Cadiz | 0 | 14.9% | 18.5% | 11.5% | 4.8% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| 1 | 9.8% | 12.2% | 7.6% | 3.2% | 1.0% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 3.3% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away strong edge
Las Palmas carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 95 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Cadiz -50.2, Las Palmas +8.8.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Cadiz
vs
Las Palmas
Elo gapLas Palmas +95
Home / draw / away30% / 19% / 51%
Expected home share37%
Combined Elo2950.5
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2950.5
Elo home share
37%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Cadiz | Las Palmas |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1410.5 | 1540 |
| Form Elo | 1372.4 | 1556.7 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1463.1 | 1483.9 |
| Attack Elo | 1411.3 | 1489.4 |
| Defense Elo | 1436 | 1591.6 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -50.2 | +8.8 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Cadiz last-5 Elo change: -50.2; Las Palmas last-5 Elo change: +8.8.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Cadiz | Las Palmas |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 0% | 60% |
| Attack | 10% | 35% |
| Defense | 40% | 70% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 2 | 0.4 | 7 | 1.4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 12 | 2.4 | 6 | 1.2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.20
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.90
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.20
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.50
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
63%
FT probability
2.5+
44%
FT probability
3.5+
31%
FT probability
BTTS
63%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-4
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Cadiz | Las Palmas | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 18 | 18 | 36 | 19 | 17 | 36 |
| Wins | 33% | 22% | 28% | 58% | 29% | 44% |
| Draws | 11% | 33% | 22% | 26% | 41% | 33% |
| Loses | 56% | 44% | 50% | 16% | 29% | 22% |
CadizWDWDWWDLWLDDDLLWLWWDWLLLLDLLLWLLLLLL
Las PalmasDWLDWWLWDWDDWWWLDDWWDLLDDDDWWLWLWWLW
League goals
| Metric | Cadiz | Las Palmas | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 17 | 16 | 33 | 30 | 17 | 47 |
| GF avg | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 1.3 |
| GA total | 25 | 26 | 51 | 12 | 18 | 30 |
| GA avg | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 0.8 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Cadiz | Las Palmas | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 61% | 72% | 75% | 61% |
| 1.5 | 25% | 44% | 33% | 14% |
| 2.5 | 6% | 25% | 17% | 6% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 6% | 3% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Cadiz | Las Palmas | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 6 | 4 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 14 |
| Failed to score | 6 | 8 | 14 | 4 | 5 | 9 |
Penalties
| Metric | Cadiz | Las Palmas |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 2 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 2 |
Streaks
| Metric | Cadiz | Las Palmas |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 3 |
| Draws | 3 | 4 |
| Losses | 4 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 2-0 | 0-2 | 4-0 | 0-3 |
| Biggest losses | 0-3 | 3-0 | 1-2 | 4-1 |
| Goals For | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Cadiz | Las Palmas |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 0% | 100% |
| Att | 22% | 78% |
| Def | 33% | 67% |
| Poisson Distribution | 36% | 64% |
| H2h | 38% | 62% |
| Goals | 43% | 57% |
| Total | 34.4% | 65.6% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home3.95 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.20 @ Unibet
Away2.20 @ Betano
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.52.17 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.79 @ 1xBet
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.83 @ Bet365
No1.98 @ Betano
📊
League standings
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