Sat, May 2 2026 • 19:00 •
Estadio Municipal de Ipurua
Expected Goals
1.59 (league 1.50)
0.81 (league 1.13)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 55.4% | 25.1% | 18.9% |
best score tips
1 - 0
14.4%
1 - 1
11.7%
2 - 0
11.5%
Score & goals probability table
| Malaga | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Eibar | 0 | 9.1% | 7.3% | 3.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 14.4% | 11.7% | 4.7% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 11.5% | 9.3% | 3.8% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 6.1% | 4.9% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 2.4% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home edge
Eibar carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 71 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Eibar +38.5, Malaga -10.6.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Eibar
vs
Malaga
Elo gapEibar +71
Home / draw / away47% / 22% / 31%
Expected home share60%
Combined Elo3177.9
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3177.9
Elo home share
60%
Match tone
Good Watch
| Metric | Eibar | Malaga |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1607.1 | 1570.8 |
| Form Elo | 1642.6 | 1570.6 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1564.1 | 1491.5 |
| Attack Elo | 1492.4 | 1616.9 |
| Defense Elo | 1673.5 | 1531.6 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +38.5 | -10.6 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Eibar last-5 Elo change: +38.5; Malaga last-5 Elo change: -10.6.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Eibar | Malaga |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 87% | 33% |
| Attack | 43% | 48% |
| Defense | 95% | 52% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 9 | 1.8 | 10 | 2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 1 | 0.2 | 10 | 2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.90
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.00
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.20
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.10
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
73%
FT probability
2.5+
51%
FT probability
3.5+
36%
FT probability
BTTS
68%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-4
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Eibar | Malaga | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 19 | 18 | 37 | 19 | 18 | 37 |
| Wins | 68% | 22% | 46% | 58% | 33% | 46% |
| Draws | 21% | 33% | 27% | 32% | 17% | 24% |
| Loses | 11% | 44% | 27% | 11% | 50% | 30% |
EibarDWLWLWDLDLDLWDLLLDWWLDWWDWLWWDWWWWDWW
MalagaDWWDLLLLWLWLDLWDDWWWWWWLWLWWDWWDDDWLL
League goals
| Metric | Eibar | Malaga | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 33 | 12 | 45 | 39 | 23 | 62 |
| GF avg | 1.7 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 1.7 |
| GA total | 13 | 19 | 32 | 22 | 25 | 47 |
| GA avg | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.3 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Eibar | Malaga | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 70% | 57% | 84% | 73% |
| 1.5 | 32% | 19% | 49% | 38% |
| 2.5 | 19% | 8% | 27% | 16% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 3% | 5% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 3% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Eibar | Malaga | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 9 | 7 | 16 | 6 | 4 | 10 |
| Failed to score | 3 | 8 | 11 | 2 | 4 | 6 |
Penalties
| Metric | Eibar | Malaga |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 5 | 100.00% | 7 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 5 | 7 |
Streaks
| Metric | Eibar | Malaga |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 4 | 6 |
| Draws | 1 | 3 |
| Losses | 3 | 4 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-0 | 0-3 | 4-1 | 0-3 |
| Biggest losses | 1-2 | 4-0 | 2-3 | 3-0 |
| Goals For | 3 | 3 | 5 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Eibar | Malaga |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 72% | 28% |
| Att | 47% | 53% |
| Def | 91% | 9% |
| Poisson Distribution | 69% | 31% |
| H2h | 62% | 38% |
| Goals | 55% | 45% |
| Total | 66.0% | 34.0% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home2.12 @ Betano
Draw3.44 @ 1xBet
Away3.72 @ Pinnacle
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.52.15 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.80 @ 1xBet
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.85 @ William Hill
No1.92 @ 1xBet
📊
League standings
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