Fri, May 1 2026 • 19:00 •
Ibercaja Estadio
Expected Goals
0.90 (league 1.50)
1.37 (league 1.13)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 24.8% | 27.6% | 47.3% |
best score tips
0 - 1
14.1%
1 - 1
12.8%
0 - 0
10.3%
Score & goals probability table
| Granada CF | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Zaragoza | 0 | 10.3% | 14.1% | 9.7% | 4.4% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| 1 | 9.3% | 12.8% | 8.7% | 4.0% | 1.4% | 0.4% | |
| 2 | 4.2% | 5.8% | 3.9% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away lean
Granada CF carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 22 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Zaragoza -30.7, Granada CF -36.0.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Zaragoza
vs
Granada CF
Elo gapGranada CF +22
Home / draw / away34% / 28% / 38%
Expected home share47%
Combined Elo2958.3
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2958.3
Elo home share
47%
Match tone
Good Watch
| Metric | Zaragoza | Granada CF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1450.9 | 1507.4 |
| Form Elo | 1445.4 | 1500 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1458.9 | 1504.7 |
| Attack Elo | 1415.9 | 1535.4 |
| Defense Elo | 1489 | 1493.2 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -30.7 | -36.0 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Zaragoza last-5 Elo change: -30.7; Granada CF last-5 Elo change: -36.0.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Zaragoza | Granada CF |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 33% | 20% |
| Attack | 29% | 29% |
| Defense | 71% | 38% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 6 | 1.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 13 | 2.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.20
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.00
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.70
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.90
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
70%
FT probability
2.5+
49%
FT probability
3.5+
35%
FT probability
BTTS
67%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
3-5
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Zaragoza | Granada CF | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 18 | 18 | 36 | 19 | 18 | 37 |
| Wins | 22% | 22% | 22% | 32% | 28% | 30% |
| Draws | 33% | 28% | 31% | 42% | 22% | 32% |
| Loses | 44% | 50% | 47% | 26% | 50% | 38% |
ZaragozaLLDDDLWLLLLLLWWWDLDLWDDLDDLLWWLWDLLD
Granada CFLLLDLDWWDDDLWDDWDLDLDDWWLWLLWDWWLLWLL
League goals
| Metric | Zaragoza | Granada CF | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 17 | 16 | 33 | 27 | 20 | 47 |
| GF avg | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| GA total | 25 | 24 | 49 | 22 | 27 | 49 |
| GA avg | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.3 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Zaragoza | Granada CF | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 67% | 78% | 70% | 70% |
| 1.5 | 19% | 39% | 32% | 41% |
| 2.5 | 6% | 11% | 11% | 16% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 6% | 8% | 5% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 3% | 5% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Zaragoza | Granada CF | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 5 | 3 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 11 |
| Failed to score | 6 | 6 | 12 | 6 | 5 | 11 |
Penalties
| Metric | Zaragoza | Granada CF |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 4 | 100.00% | 4 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 4 | 4 |
Streaks
| Metric | Zaragoza | Granada CF |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 2 |
| Draws | 3 | 3 |
| Losses | 6 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 2-0 | 2-3 | 5-1 | 0-2 |
| Biggest losses | 0-5 | 4-2 | 2-4 | 4-1 |
| Goals For | 3 | 3 | 5 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Zaragoza | Granada CF |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 63% | 38% |
| Att | 50% | 50% |
| Def | 68% | 32% |
| Poisson Distribution | 42% | 58% |
| H2h | 62% | 38% |
| Goals | 50% | 50% |
| Total | 55.8% | 44.3% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home2.25 @ Unibet
Draw3.46 @ 1xBet
Away3.65 @ Pinnacle
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.52.23 @ Unibet
Under 2.51.78 @ 1xBet
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.88 @ Unibet
No1.88 @ 1xBet
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League standings
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