Primera A — Colombia
Sun, Sep 21 2025 • 19:00 • Estadio Nemesio Camacho El Campín
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.65 (league 1.10) 0.69 (league 0.82)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
60.0% 24.1% 15.2%
best score tips
1 - 0
16.0%
2 - 0
13.2%
1 - 1
10.9%
Score & goals probability table
Fortaleza FC
0 1 2 3 4 5
Millonarios 0 9.7% 6.6% 2.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
1 16.0% 10.9% 3.7% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0%
2 13.2% 9.0% 3.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
3 7.3% 5.0% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
4 3.0% 2.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
5 1.0% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

🔮

Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricMillonariosFortaleza FC
Played55
Form67%73%
Attack60%70%
Defense60%70%
Goals For (tot | avg)6 | 1.27 | 1.4
Goals Against (tot | avg)4 | 0.83 | 0.6

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.20
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.10
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.10
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.10
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

61%
FT probability

2.5+

43%
FT probability

3.5+

30%
FT probability

BTTS

58%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

3 - 5 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Millonarios Fortaleza FC
HATHAT
Played191837161531
Wins47%39%43%50%13%32%
Draws32%22%27%31%40%35%
Loses21%39%30%19%47%32%

Form: Millonarios: WWDLWLWLWLWWWDDWDDWWWDDDWLLLLDLLWWDWL • Fortaleza FC: DLWWLLLDDDLLLWWDLWLLWWDDDDDWDWW

League goals

Metric Millonarios Fortaleza FC
HATHAT
GF total252146181230
GF avg1.31.21.21.10.81.0
GA total142236132134
GA avg0.71.21.00.81.41.1

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineMillonariosFortaleza FC
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.570%51%65%61%
1.541%32%26%32%
2.511%14%3%6%
3.53%0%3%6%
4.50%0%0%3%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricMillonariosFortaleza FC
HATHAT
Clean sheets117189312
Failed to score65115611

Penalties

MetricMillonariosFortaleza FC
Scored (total | %)5 | 100.00%4 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total54

Streaks

MetricMillonariosFortaleza FC
Wins32
Draws35
Losses43

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-01-34-00-2
Biggest losses1-23-01-54-0
Goals For4342
Goals Against3354

Model comparison

MetricMillonariosFortaleza FC
Form48%52%
Att46%54%
Def43%57%
Poisson Distribution69%31%
H2h100%0%
Goals75%25%
Total56.2%43.8%

Advice: Double chance : Millonarios or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.91 @ Betano
Draw3.50 @ Betano
Away5.10 @ Unibet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.40 @ Betfair
Under 2.51.60 @ Betano

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.23 @ 188Bet
No1.70 @ William Hill
Select to view full market tables.
📊

League standings

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Expected goals (λ): Millonarios = 1.65 (league 1.10), Fortaleza FC = 0.69 (league 0.82)

Fortaleza FC
0 1 2 3 4 5
Millonarios 0 9.7% 6.6% 2.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
1 16.0% 10.9% 3.7% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0%
2 13.2% 9.0% 3.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
3 7.3% 5.0% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
4 3.0% 2.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
5 1.0% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 60.0% · Draw 24.1% · Away win 15.2%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1