Sun, Sep 21 2025 • 21:10 • Estadio Sierra Nevada
Match Finished
Expected Goals
0.98 (league 1.10) 2.08 (league 0.81)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
16.8% 20.3% 60.9%
best score tips
0 - 2
10.2%
1 - 2
9.9%
0 - 1
9.8%
Score & goals probability table
Atletico Nacional
0 1 2 3 4 5
Union Magdalena 0 4.7% 9.8% 10.2% 7.1% 3.7% 1.5%
1 4.6% 9.5% 9.9% 6.9% 3.6% 1.5%
2 2.2% 4.7% 4.9% 3.4% 1.8% 0.7%
3 0.7% 1.5% 1.6% 1.1% 0.6% 0.2%
4 0.2% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1%
5 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricUnion MagdalenaAtletico Nacional
Played55
Form40%40%
Attack70%70%
Defense20%30%
Goals For (tot | avg)7 | 1.47 | 1.4
Goals Against (tot | avg)8 | 1.67 | 1.4

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.40
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.20
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.50
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.50
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

69%
FT probability

2.5+

48%
FT probability

3.5+

34%
FT probability

BTTS

65%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

3 - 5 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Union Magdalena Atletico Nacional
HATHAT
Played151631191837
Wins7%19%13%58%28%43%
Draws53%13%32%21%44%32%
Loses40%69%55%21%28%24%

Form: Union Magdalena: LDDDLLDLDLLLDDDLLLLWDLLWDLWLLWL • Atletico Nacional: WWWDLWWDWDLWDWLWDWLLDDLWLWWWLDDWDDWDL

League goals

Metric Union Magdalena Atletico Nacional
HATHAT
GF total131225362460
GF avg0.90.80.81.91.31.6
GA total202646172138
GA avg1.31.61.50.91.21.0

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineUnion MagdalenaAtletico Nacional
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.561%84%76%65%
1.516%45%46%27%
2.53%16%27%11%
3.50%3%11%0%
4.50%0%3%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricUnion MagdalenaAtletico Nacional
HATHAT
Clean sheets3258513
Failed to score7512369

Penalties

MetricUnion MagdalenaAtletico Nacional
Scored (total | %)3 | 100.00%8 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total38

Streaks

MetricUnion MagdalenaAtletico Nacional
Wins13
Draws32
Losses42

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-11-24-01-5
Biggest losses1-34-12-32-0
Goals For3245
Goals Against3433

Model comparison

MetricUnion MagdalenaAtletico Nacional
Form50%50%
Att50%50%
Def47%53%
Poisson Distribution29%71%
H2h29%71%
Goals36%64%
Total40.2%59.8%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Atletico Nacional

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home5.66 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.60 @ Betfair
Away1.78 @ Betano

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.20 @ 888Sport
Under 2.51.73 @ Betfair

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.10 @ William Hill
No1.75 @ Betfair
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Union Magdalena = 0.98 (league 1.10), Atletico Nacional = 2.08 (league 0.81)

Atletico Nacional
0 1 2 3 4 5
Union Magdalena 0 4.7% 9.8% 10.2% 7.1% 3.7% 1.5%
1 4.6% 9.5% 9.9% 6.9% 3.6% 1.5%
2 2.2% 4.7% 4.9% 3.4% 1.8% 0.7%
3 0.7% 1.5% 1.6% 1.1% 0.6% 0.2%
4 0.2% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1%
5 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 16.8% · Draw 20.3% · Away win 60.9%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1