Sun, Sep 28 2025 • 01:30 • Estadio Atanasio Girardot
Match Finished
Expected Goals
2.08 (league 1.10) 1.33 (league 0.81)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
52.6% 21.1% 24.1%
best score tips
2 - 1
9.5%
1 - 1
9.1%
2 - 0
7.1%
Score & goals probability table
Millonarios
0 1 2 3 4 5
Atletico Nacional 0 3.3% 4.4% 2.9% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1%
1 6.9% 9.1% 6.1% 2.7% 0.9% 0.2%
2 7.1% 9.5% 6.3% 2.8% 0.9% 0.3%
3 4.9% 6.6% 4.4% 1.9% 0.6% 0.2%
4 2.6% 3.4% 2.3% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1%
5 1.1% 1.4% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricAtletico NacionalMillonarios
Played55
Form53%67%
Attack30%26%
Defense74%74%
Goals For (tot | avg)7 | 1.46 | 1.2
Goals Against (tot | avg)6 | 1.26 | 1.2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.90
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.10
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.00
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.10
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

72%
FT probability

2.5+

51%
FT probability

3.5+

36%
FT probability

BTTS

64%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 5 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Atletico Nacional Millonarios
HATHAT
Played191938201838
Wins58%32%45%50%39%45%
Draws21%42%32%30%22%26%
Loses21%26%24%20%39%29%

Form: Atletico Nacional: WWWDLWWDWDLWDWLWDWLLDDLWLWWWLDDWDDWDLW • Millonarios: WWDLWLWLWLWWWDDWDDWWWDDDWLLLLDLLWWDWLW

League goals

Metric Atletico Nacional Millonarios
HATHAT
GF total362662282149
GF avg1.91.41.61.41.21.3
GA total172239162238
GA avg0.91.21.00.81.21.0

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineAtletico NacionalMillonarios
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.576%66%71%53%
1.547%26%42%34%
2.526%11%13%13%
3.511%0%3%0%
4.53%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricAtletico NacionalMillonarios
HATHAT
Clean sheets851311718
Failed to score3696511

Penalties

MetricAtletico NacionalMillonarios
Scored (total | %)8 | 100.00%5 | 83.33%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%1 | 16.67%
Total86

Streaks

MetricAtletico NacionalMillonarios
Wins33
Draws23
Losses24

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins4-01-53-01-3
Biggest losses2-32-01-23-0
Goals For4543
Goals Against3333

Model comparison

MetricAtletico NacionalMillonarios
Form44%56%
Att54%46%
Def50%50%
Poisson Distribution62%38%
H2h25%75%
Goals33%67%
Total44.7%55.3%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Millonarios

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.74 @ 188Bet
Draw4.10 @ Unibet
Away6.82 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.06 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.80 @ Bet365

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.15 @ Unibet
No1.73 @ William Hill
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Atletico Nacional = 2.08 (league 1.10), Millonarios = 1.33 (league 0.81)

Millonarios
0 1 2 3 4 5
Atletico Nacional 0 3.3% 4.4% 2.9% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1%
1 6.9% 9.1% 6.1% 2.7% 0.9% 0.2%
2 7.1% 9.5% 6.3% 2.8% 0.9% 0.3%
3 4.9% 6.6% 4.4% 1.9% 0.6% 0.2%
4 2.6% 3.4% 2.3% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1%
5 1.1% 1.4% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 52.6% · Draw 21.1% · Away win 24.1%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1