Tue, Oct 21 2025 • 01:10 • Estadio Atanasio Girardot
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.60 (league 1.10) 1.44 (league 0.81)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
40.8% 24.0% 34.2%
best score tips
1 - 1
11.0%
2 - 1
8.8%
1 - 2
7.9%
Score & goals probability table
Santa Fe
0 1 2 3 4 5
Independiente Medellin 0 4.7% 6.9% 5.0% 2.4% 0.9% 0.2%
1 7.6% 11.0% 7.9% 3.8% 1.4% 0.4%
2 6.1% 8.8% 6.4% 3.1% 1.1% 0.3%
3 3.3% 4.7% 3.4% 1.6% 0.6% 0.2%
4 1.3% 1.9% 1.4% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1%
5 0.4% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricIndependiente MedellinSanta Fe
Played55
Form67%53%
Attack100%58%
Defense33%67%
Goals For (tot | avg)14 | 2.87 | 1.4
Goals Against (tot | avg)8 | 1.64 | 0.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.70
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.90
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.90
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.00
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

68%
FT probability

2.5+

48%
FT probability

3.5+

34%
FT probability

BTTS

65%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

3 - 6 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Independiente Medellin Santa Fe
HATHAT
Played212243212243
Wins48%50%49%43%45%44%
Draws38%27%33%33%27%30%
Loses14%23%19%24%27%26%

Form: Independiente Medellin: DWWDWWWDDDDLWWDDLLWLDWWWWDDLDLLWWWWWWDDWLWW • Santa Fe: WDDDLWWWDWLWDLLDWWWLLWWLWWDWDWDDWLWLLDWDWLD

League goals

Metric Independiente Medellin Santa Fe
HATHAT
GF total342862262854
GF avg1.61.31.41.21.31.3
GA total191938192544
GA avg0.90.90.90.91.11.0

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineIndependiente MedellinSanta Fe
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.577%60%74%60%
1.540%21%35%30%
2.523%5%7%5%
3.52%2%2%2%
4.52%0%2%2%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricIndependiente MedellinSanta Fe
HATHAT
Clean sheets98179817
Failed to score37105611

Penalties

MetricIndependiente MedellinSanta Fe
Scored (total | %)8 | 100.00%7 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total87

Streaks

MetricIndependiente MedellinSanta Fe
Wins63
Draws43
Losses22

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-01-53-01-7
Biggest losses3-42-01-36-1
Goals For3537
Goals Against4236

Model comparison

MetricIndependiente MedellinSanta Fe
Form56%44%
Att67%33%
Def33%67%
Poisson Distribution54%46%
H2h38%62%
Goals56%44%
Total50.7%49.3%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Santa Fe

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.82 @ 188Bet
Draw4.00 @ Unibet
Away5.62 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.88 @ SBO
Under 2.51.98 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.18 @ 188Bet
No1.95 @ Betfair
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Independiente Medellin = 1.60 (league 1.10), Santa Fe = 1.44 (league 0.81)

Santa Fe
0 1 2 3 4 5
Independiente Medellin 0 4.7% 6.9% 5.0% 2.4% 0.9% 0.2%
1 7.6% 11.0% 7.9% 3.8% 1.4% 0.4%
2 6.1% 8.8% 6.4% 3.1% 1.1% 0.3%
3 3.3% 4.7% 3.4% 1.6% 0.6% 0.2%
4 1.3% 1.9% 1.4% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1%
5 0.4% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 40.8% · Draw 24.0% · Away win 34.2%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1