Primera A — Colombia
Mon, Oct 6 2025 • 00:30 • Estadio de La Independencia
Match Finished
Expected Goals
0.98 (league 1.10) 1.55 (league 0.81)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
23.9% 25.5% 50.0%
best score tips
0 - 1
12.3%
1 - 1
12.1%
0 - 2
9.6%
Score & goals probability table
Atletico Nacional
0 1 2 3 4 5
Chico 0 8.0% 12.3% 9.6% 4.9% 1.9% 0.6%
1 7.8% 12.1% 9.4% 4.8% 1.9% 0.6%
2 3.8% 5.9% 4.6% 2.4% 0.9% 0.3%
3 1.3% 1.9% 1.5% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1%
4 0.3% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricChicoAtletico Nacional
Played55
Form27%67%
Attack27%53%
Defense20%67%
Goals For (tot | avg)4 | 0.88 | 1.6
Goals Against (tot | avg)12 | 2.45 | 1

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.30
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.30
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.60
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.10
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

66%
FT probability

2.5+

47%
FT probability

3.5+

33%
FT probability

BTTS

61%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

3 - 5 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Chico Atletico Nacional
HATHAT
Played161733201939
Wins31%6%18%60%32%46%
Draws50%29%39%20%42%31%
Loses19%65%42%20%26%23%

Form: Chico: WLDLLWDDDDLLDDLLDWWLDWLDLDLDWLLDL • Atletico Nacional: WWWDLWWDWDLWDWLWDWLLDDLWLWWWLDDWDDWDLWW

League goals

Metric Chico Atletico Nacional
HATHAT
GF total141024382664
GF avg0.90.60.71.91.41.6
GA total153752172239
GA avg0.92.21.60.91.21.0

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineChicoAtletico Nacional
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.555%67%77%64%
1.518%48%49%26%
2.50%24%26%10%
3.50%15%10%0%
4.50%3%3%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricChicoAtletico Nacional
HATHAT
Clean sheets83119514
Failed to score6915369

Penalties

MetricChicoAtletico Nacional
Scored (total | %)5 | 100.00%9 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total59

Streaks

MetricChicoAtletico Nacional
Wins23
Draws42
Losses22

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-00-14-01-5
Biggest losses1-44-02-32-0
Goals For2245
Goals Against4533

Model comparison

MetricChicoAtletico Nacional
Form29%71%
Att33%67%
Def29%71%
Poisson Distribution36%64%
H2h20%80%
Goals29%71%
Total29.3%70.7%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Atletico Nacional

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home5.40 @ 10Bet
Draw3.90 @ Unibet
Away1.78 @ Betano

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.10 @ 10Bet
Under 2.51.82 @ 188Bet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.05 @ 188Bet
No1.85 @ William Hill
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Chico = 0.98 (league 1.10), Atletico Nacional = 1.55 (league 0.81)

Atletico Nacional
0 1 2 3 4 5
Chico 0 8.0% 12.3% 9.6% 4.9% 1.9% 0.6%
1 7.8% 12.1% 9.4% 4.8% 1.9% 0.6%
2 3.8% 5.9% 4.6% 2.4% 0.9% 0.3%
3 1.3% 1.9% 1.5% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1%
4 0.3% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 23.9% · Draw 25.5% · Away win 50.0%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1