Fri, Oct 17 2025 • 23:30 • Estadio Atanasio Girardot
Match Finished
Expected Goals
2.03 (league 1.10) 0.89 (league 0.81)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
62.2% 20.5% 15.5%
best score tips
2 - 0
11.1%
1 - 0
11.0%
2 - 1
9.9%
Score & goals probability table
Fortaleza FC
0 1 2 3 4 5
Independiente Medellin 0 5.4% 4.8% 2.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
1 11.0% 9.7% 4.3% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1%
2 11.1% 9.9% 4.4% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1%
3 7.6% 6.7% 3.0% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0%
4 3.8% 3.4% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
5 1.6% 1.4% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricIndependiente MedellinFortaleza FC
Played55
Form53%67%
Attack74%32%
Defense47%79%
Goals For (tot | avg)14 | 2.86 | 1.2
Goals Against (tot | avg)10 | 24 | 0.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.40
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.40
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.00
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.30
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

65%
FT probability

2.5+

46%
FT probability

3.5+

33%
FT probability

BTTS

63%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

3 - 5 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Independiente Medellin Fortaleza FC
HATHAT
Played202242181735
Wins45%50%48%56%12%34%
Draws40%27%33%28%41%34%
Loses15%23%19%17%47%31%

Form: Independiente Medellin: DWWDWWWDDDDLWWDDLLWLDWWWWDDLDLLWWWWWWDDWLW • Fortaleza FC: DLWWLLLDDDLLLWWDLWLLWWDDDDDWDWWLWDW

League goals

Metric Independiente Medellin Fortaleza FC
HATHAT
GF total312859211435
GF avg1.61.31.41.20.81.0
GA total181937142438
GA avg0.90.90.90.81.41.1

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineIndependiente MedellinFortaleza FC
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.576%60%66%60%
1.538%21%29%31%
2.521%5%3%9%
3.52%2%3%6%
4.52%0%0%3%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricIndependiente MedellinFortaleza FC
HATHAT
Clean sheets981710414
Failed to score37105712

Penalties

MetricIndependiente MedellinFortaleza FC
Scored (total | %)8 | 100.00%5 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total85

Streaks

MetricIndependiente MedellinFortaleza FC
Wins62
Draws45
Losses23

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-01-54-00-2
Biggest losses3-42-01-54-0
Goals For3542
Goals Against4254

Model comparison

MetricIndependiente MedellinFortaleza FC
Form44%56%
Att70%30%
Def29%71%
Poisson Distribution68%32%
H2h64%36%
Goals55%45%
Total55.0%45.0%

Advice: Winner : Independiente Medellin

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.58 @ Pinnacle
Draw4.00 @ 188Bet
Away6.06 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.03 @ 188Bet
No1.83 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.99 @ 188Bet
Under 2.51.89 @ 188Bet
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Independiente Medellin = 2.03 (league 1.10), Fortaleza FC = 0.89 (league 0.81)

Fortaleza FC
0 1 2 3 4 5
Independiente Medellin 0 5.4% 4.8% 2.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
1 11.0% 9.7% 4.3% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1%
2 11.1% 9.9% 4.4% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1%
3 7.6% 6.7% 3.0% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0%
4 3.8% 3.4% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
5 1.6% 1.4% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 62.2% · Draw 20.5% · Away win 15.5%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1