Sat, Oct 18 2025 • 19:00 • Estadio Departamental Libertad
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.64 (league 1.10) 1.90 (league 0.81)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
33.0% 21.9% 43.0%
best score tips
1 - 1
9.0%
1 - 2
8.6%
2 - 1
7.4%
Score & goals probability table
Atletico Nacional
0 1 2 3 4 5
Deportivo Pasto 0 2.9% 5.5% 5.2% 3.3% 1.6% 0.6%
1 4.8% 9.0% 8.6% 5.4% 2.6% 1.0%
2 3.9% 7.4% 7.0% 4.5% 2.1% 0.8%
3 2.1% 4.0% 3.8% 2.4% 1.2% 0.4%
4 0.9% 1.7% 1.6% 1.0% 0.5% 0.2%
5 0.3% 0.5% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricDeportivo PastoAtletico Nacional
Played55
Form20%73%
Attack38%63%
Defense38%63%
Goals For (tot | avg)6 | 1.210 | 2
Goals Against (tot | avg)10 | 26 | 1.2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.80
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.90
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.20
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.30
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

73%
FT probability

2.5+

51%
FT probability

3.5+

36%
FT probability

BTTS

69%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

3 - 6 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Deportivo Pasto Atletico Nacional
HATHAT
Played171835202040
Wins53%6%29%65%30%48%
Draws24%39%31%20%45%33%
Loses24%56%40%15%25%20%

Form: Deportivo Pasto: LLDWWWLWWDDDDLWLWLWLWDDLLLDWLLDLLDD • Atletico Nacional: WWWDLWWDWDLWDWLWDWLLDDLWLWWWLDDWDDWDWWDW

League goals

Metric Deportivo Pasto Atletico Nacional
HATHAT
GF total261137402767
GF avg1.50.61.12.01.41.7
GA total192443172340
GA avg1.11.31.20.91.21.0

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineDeportivo PastoAtletico Nacional
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.566%77%80%65%
1.529%37%50%25%
2.511%9%25%10%
3.50%0%10%0%
4.50%0%3%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricDeportivo PastoAtletico Nacional
HATHAT
Clean sheets5389514
Failed to score3912268

Penalties

MetricDeportivo PastoAtletico Nacional
Scored (total | %)4 | 100.00%10 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total410

Streaks

MetricDeportivo PastoAtletico Nacional
Wins33
Draws42
Losses32

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-00-14-01-5
Biggest losses0-23-02-32-0
Goals For3245
Goals Against3333

Model comparison

MetricDeportivo PastoAtletico Nacional
Form21%79%
Att38%63%
Def38%63%
Poisson Distribution46%54%
H2h0%100%
Goals18%82%
Total32.2%68.2%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Atletico Nacional

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home6.50 @ Bet365
Draw3.95 @ 188Bet
Away1.62 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.19 @ 188Bet
No1.81 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.05 @ Bet365
Under 2.51.80 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Deportivo Pasto = 1.64 (league 1.10), Atletico Nacional = 1.90 (league 0.81)

Atletico Nacional
0 1 2 3 4 5
Deportivo Pasto 0 2.9% 5.5% 5.2% 3.3% 1.6% 0.6%
1 4.8% 9.0% 8.6% 5.4% 2.6% 1.0%
2 3.9% 7.4% 7.0% 4.5% 2.1% 0.8%
3 2.1% 4.0% 3.8% 2.4% 1.2% 0.4%
4 0.9% 1.7% 1.6% 1.0% 0.5% 0.2%
5 0.3% 0.5% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 33.0% · Draw 21.9% · Away win 43.0%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1