Sun, Sep 28 2025 • 15:00 • Tony Bezzina Stadium
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.71 (league 1.14) 1.07 (league 1.21)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
51.5% 23.9% 23.6%
best score tips
1 - 1
11.4%
1 - 0
10.6%
2 - 1
9.7%
Score & goals probability table
Birkirkara
0 1 2 3 4 5
Marsaxlokk 0 6.2% 6.6% 3.6% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1%
1 10.6% 11.4% 6.1% 2.2% 0.6% 0.1%
2 9.1% 9.7% 5.2% 1.9% 0.5% 0.1%
3 5.2% 5.5% 3.0% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1%
4 2.2% 2.4% 1.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.8% 0.8% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricMarsaxlokkBirkirkara
Played55
Form40%53%
Attack36%43%
Defense50%71%
Goals For (tot | avg)5 | 16 | 1.2
Goals Against (tot | avg)7 | 1.44 | 0.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.30
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.50
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.00
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.60
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

67%
FT probability

2.5+

47%
FT probability

3.5+

34%
FT probability

BTTS

63%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

1 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Marsaxlokk Birkirkara
HATHAT
Played426336
Wins50%50%50%67%0%33%
Draws0%0%0%33%67%50%
Loses50%50%50%0%33%17%

Form: Marsaxlokk: WWLWLL • Birkirkara: DDLDWW

League goals

Metric Marsaxlokk Birkirkara
HATHAT
GF total628336
GF avg1.51.01.31.01.01.0
GA total538044
GA avg1.31.51.30.01.30.7

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineMarsaxlokkBirkirkara
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.583%67%67%33%
1.533%50%33%33%
2.517%17%0%0%
3.50%0%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricMarsaxlokkBirkirkara
HATHAT
Clean sheets112314
Failed to score101112

Penalties

MetricMarsaxlokkBirkirkara
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%2 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total02

Streaks

MetricMarsaxlokkBirkirkara
Wins20
Draws02
Losses11

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-10-12-0
Biggest losses0-23-12-1
Goals For3122
Goals Against2302

Model comparison

MetricMarsaxlokkBirkirkara
Form43%57%
Att45%55%
Def36%64%
Poisson Distribution56%44%
H2h50%50%
Goals50%50%
Total46.7%53.3%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Birkirkara

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.33 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.20 @ Bet365
Away3.20 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.35 @ Bet365
Under 2.51.57 @ 10Bet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.96 @ Pinnacle
No1.81 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Marsaxlokk = 1.71 (league 1.14), Birkirkara = 1.07 (league 1.21)

Birkirkara
0 1 2 3 4 5
Marsaxlokk 0 6.2% 6.6% 3.6% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1%
1 10.6% 11.4% 6.1% 2.2% 0.6% 0.1%
2 9.1% 9.7% 5.2% 1.9% 0.5% 0.1%
3 5.2% 5.5% 3.0% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1%
4 2.2% 2.4% 1.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.8% 0.8% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 51.5% · Draw 23.9% · Away win 23.6%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1