Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 15:00 •
MOL Aréna Sóstó
Expected Goals
0.34 (league 1.41)
0.92 (league 1.18)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 13.3% | 38.1% | 48.6% |
best score tips
0 - 0
28.5%
0 - 1
26.1%
0 - 2
11.9%
Score & goals probability table
| Vasas | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Fehérvár FC | 0 | 28.5% | 26.1% | 11.9% | 3.6% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 1 | 9.7% | 8.9% | 4.1% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 1.6% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away edge
Vasas carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 62 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Fehérvár FC +27.2, Vasas +19.6.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Fehérvár FC
vs
Vasas
Elo gapVasas +62
Home / draw / away32% / 23% / 45%
Expected home share41%
Combined Elo3172.6
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3172.6
Elo home share
41%
Match tone
Upset Watch
| Metric | Fehérvár FC | Vasas |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1537.8 | 1634.8 |
| Form Elo | 1576.8 | 1656.7 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1495.9 | 1545.2 |
| Attack Elo | 1513.2 | 1682.7 |
| Defense Elo | 1579 | 1657.9 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +27.2 | +19.6 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Fehérvár FC last-5 Elo change: +27.2; Vasas last-5 Elo change: +19.6.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Fehérvár FC | Vasas |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 60% | 80% |
| Attack | 73% | 100% |
| Defense | 73% | 73% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 13 | 2.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 3 | 0.6 | 3 | 0.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.30
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.00
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.80
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.00
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
65%
FT probability
2.5+
46%
FT probability
3.5+
33%
FT probability
BTTS
56%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-4
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Fehérvár FC | Vasas | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 13 | 13 | 26 | 13 | 13 | 26 |
| Wins | 46% | 31% | 38% | 69% | 62% | 65% |
| Draws | 38% | 31% | 35% | 8% | 23% | 15% |
| Loses | 15% | 38% | 27% | 23% | 15% | 19% |
Fehérvár FCLDDLWLWDDLWLLDDLWWWWWDDWDW
VasasLWWLWWWWDWDWWLLDWWWDWWWWWL
League goals
| Metric | Fehérvár FC | Vasas | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 16 | 19 | 35 | 27 | 24 | 51 |
| GF avg | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 2.0 |
| GA total | 8 | 17 | 25 | 15 | 5 | 20 |
| GA avg | 0.6 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.8 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Fehérvár FC | Vasas | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 77% | 62% | 77% | 38% |
| 1.5 | 31% | 23% | 58% | 23% |
| 2.5 | 12% | 12% | 31% | 12% |
| 3.5 | 8% | 0% | 23% | 4% |
| 4.5 | 8% | 0% | 4% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Fehérvár FC | Vasas | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 7 | 3 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 16 |
| Failed to score | 4 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 6 |
Penalties
| Metric | Fehérvár FC | Vasas |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 2 | 100.00% | 6 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 2 | 6 |
Streaks
| Metric | Fehérvár FC | Vasas |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 5 | 5 |
| Draws | 2 | 1 |
| Losses | 2 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 5-0 | 1-5 | 6-0 | 0-4 |
| Biggest losses | 0-3 | 3-1 | 1-4 | 1-0 |
| Goals For | 5 | 5 | 6 | 4 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Fehérvár FC | Vasas |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 43% | 57% |
| Att | 38% | 62% |
| Def | 50% | 50% |
| Poisson Distribution | 27% | 73% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 50% | 50% |
| Total | 43.0% | 57.0% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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