Sat, Sep 27 2025 • 12:00 • Erzgebirgsstadion
Match Finished
Expected Goals
0.45 (league 1.56) 1.22 (league 1.38)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
13.6% 30.6% 55.6%
best score tips
0 - 1
23.0%
0 - 0
18.8%
0 - 2
14.1%
Score & goals probability table
TSV 1860 München
0 1 2 3 4 5
Erzgebirge Aue 0 18.8% 23.0% 14.1% 5.7% 1.8% 0.4%
1 8.4% 10.3% 6.3% 2.6% 0.8% 0.2%
2 1.9% 2.3% 1.4% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0%
3 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricErzgebirge AueTSV 1860 München
Played55
Form20%47%
Attack26%42%
Defense32%47%
Goals For (tot | avg)5 | 18 | 1.6
Goals Against (tot | avg)13 | 2.610 | 2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.40
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.00
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.70
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.30
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

74%
FT probability

2.5+

52%
FT probability

3.5+

37%
FT probability

BTTS

70%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 6 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Erzgebirge Aue TSV 1860 München
HATHAT
Played347437
Wins33%0%14%50%33%43%
Draws33%0%14%25%33%29%
Loses33%100%71%25%33%29%

Form: Erzgebirge Aue: DLWLLLL • TSV 1860 München: DWWDWLL

League goals

Metric Erzgebirge Aue TSV 1860 München
HATHAT
GF total2358412
GF avg0.70.80.72.01.31.7
GA total410149312
GA avg1.32.52.02.31.01.7

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineErzgebirge AueTSV 1860 München
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.557%86%100%86%
1.514%57%43%43%
2.50%43%29%14%
3.50%14%0%14%
4.50%0%0%14%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricErzgebirge AueTSV 1860 München
HATHAT
Clean sheets101011
Failed to score213000

Penalties

MetricErzgebirge AueTSV 1860 München
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total00

Streaks

MetricErzgebirge AueTSV 1860 München
Wins12
Draws11
Losses10

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-13-10-2
Biggest losses0-34-11-52-1
Goals For2132
Goals Against3452

Model comparison

MetricErzgebirge AueTSV 1860 München
Form30%70%
Att38%62%
Def43%57%
Poisson Distribution26%74%
H2h62%38%
Goals54%46%
Total42.2%57.8%

Advice: Double chance : draw or TSV 1860 München

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home3.20 @ 10Bet
Draw3.60 @ Bet365
Away2.37 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.75 @ Bet365
Under 2.52.11 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.65 @ 188Bet
No2.36 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Erzgebirge Aue = 0.45 (league 1.56), TSV 1860 München = 1.22 (league 1.38)

TSV 1860 München
0 1 2 3 4 5
Erzgebirge Aue 0 18.8% 23.0% 14.1% 5.7% 1.8% 0.4%
1 8.4% 10.3% 6.3% 2.6% 0.8% 0.2%
2 1.9% 2.3% 1.4% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0%
3 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 13.6% · Draw 30.6% · Away win 55.6%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1