Tue, Sep 30 2025 • 17:00 • Ludwigspark Stadion
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.43 (league 1.56) 2.03 (league 1.38)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
26.8% 21.5% 49.7%
best score tips
1 - 2
9.3%
1 - 1
9.1%
2 - 2
6.6%
Score & goals probability table
MSV Duisburg
0 1 2 3 4 5
FC Saarbrücken 0 3.1% 6.4% 6.5% 4.4% 2.2% 0.9%
1 4.5% 9.1% 9.3% 6.3% 3.2% 1.3%
2 3.2% 6.5% 6.6% 4.5% 2.3% 0.9%
3 1.5% 3.1% 3.2% 2.1% 1.1% 0.4%
4 0.5% 1.1% 1.1% 0.8% 0.4% 0.2%
5 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricFC SaarbrückenMSV Duisburg
Played55
Form87%87%
Attack100%92%
Defense62%62%
Goals For (tot | avg)13 | 2.612 | 2.4
Goals Against (tot | avg)5 | 15 | 1

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

4.80
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

5.60
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.30
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.80
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

95%
FT probability

2.5+

73%
FT probability

3.5+

52%
FT probability

BTTS

86%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

3 - 5 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric FC Saarbrücken MSV Duisburg
HATHAT
Played448448
Wins100%25%63%100%75%88%
Draws0%50%25%0%25%13%
Loses0%25%13%0%0%0%

Form: FC Saarbrücken: DWLWWWWD • MSV Duisburg: WWWWWWDW

League goals

Metric FC Saarbrücken MSV Duisburg
HATHAT
GF total1171891120
GF avg2.81.82.32.32.82.5
GA total4711437
GA avg1.01.81.41.00.80.9

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineFC SaarbrückenMSV Duisburg
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.588%100%100%75%
1.575%25%88%13%
2.550%13%50%0%
3.513%0%13%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricFC SaarbrückenMSV Duisburg
HATHAT
Clean sheets000022
Failed to score011000

Penalties

MetricFC SaarbrückenMSV Duisburg
Scored (total | %)2 | 100.00%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total20

Streaks

MetricFC SaarbrückenMSV Duisburg
Wins46
Draws11
Losses10

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins4-11-33-10-4
Biggest losses2-0
Goals For4334
Goals Against1312

Model comparison

MetricFC SaarbrückenMSV Duisburg
Form50%50%
Att52%48%
Def50%50%
Poisson Distribution40%60%
H2h38%62%
Goals44%56%
Total45.7%54.3%

Advice: Double chance : draw or MSV Duisburg

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.19 @ 188Bet
Draw3.65 @ 188Bet
Away3.27 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.71 @ Unibet
Under 2.52.22 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.57 @ William Hill
No2.41 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): FC Saarbrücken = 1.43 (league 1.56), MSV Duisburg = 2.03 (league 1.38)

MSV Duisburg
0 1 2 3 4 5
FC Saarbrücken 0 3.1% 6.4% 6.5% 4.4% 2.2% 0.9%
1 4.5% 9.1% 9.3% 6.3% 3.2% 1.3%
2 3.2% 6.5% 6.6% 4.5% 2.3% 0.9%
3 1.5% 3.1% 3.2% 2.1% 1.1% 0.4%
4 0.5% 1.1% 1.1% 0.8% 0.4% 0.2%
5 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 26.8% · Draw 21.5% · Away win 49.7%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1