Sun, Oct 5 2025 • 11:30 • Erzgebirgsstadion
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.79 (league 1.56) 1.67 (league 1.38)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
40.3% 22.4% 35.5%
best score tips
1 - 1
9.4%
2 - 1
8.4%
1 - 2
7.8%
Score & goals probability table
Rot-Weiß Essen
0 1 2 3 4 5
Erzgebirge Aue 0 3.2% 5.3% 4.4% 2.4% 1.0% 0.3%
1 5.6% 9.4% 7.8% 4.4% 1.8% 0.6%
2 5.1% 8.4% 7.0% 3.9% 1.6% 0.5%
3 3.0% 5.0% 4.2% 2.3% 1.0% 0.3%
4 1.3% 2.2% 1.9% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1%
5 0.5% 0.8% 0.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricErzgebirge AueRot-Weiß Essen
Played55
Form40%67%
Attack25%55%
Defense60%55%
Goals For (tot | avg)5 | 111 | 2.2
Goals Against (tot | avg)8 | 1.69 | 1.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.00
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.30
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.50
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.80
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

95%
FT probability

2.5+

68%
FT probability

3.5+

49%
FT probability

BTTS

76%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Erzgebirge Aue Rot-Weiß Essen
HATHAT
Played459549
Wins50%20%33%40%50%44%
Draws25%0%11%40%25%33%
Loses25%80%56%20%25%22%

Form: Erzgebirge Aue: DLWLLLLWW • Rot-Weiß Essen: DDWLWDWLW

League goals

Metric Erzgebirge Aue Rot-Weiß Essen
HATHAT
GF total44810919
GF avg1.00.80.92.02.32.1
GA total4101461117
GA avg1.02.01.61.22.81.9

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineErzgebirge AueRot-Weiß Essen
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.567%67%100%89%
1.522%44%56%33%
2.50%33%44%33%
3.50%11%11%11%
4.50%0%0%11%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricErzgebirge AueRot-Weiß Essen
HATHAT
Clean sheets213101
Failed to score213000

Penalties

MetricErzgebirge AueRot-Weiß Essen
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%2 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total02

Streaks

MetricErzgebirge AueRot-Weiß Essen
Wins11
Draws12
Losses41

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-00-13-01-3
Biggest losses0-34-12-36-1
Goals For2134
Goals Against3436

Model comparison

MetricErzgebirge AueRot-Weiß Essen
Form38%63%
Att31%69%
Def53%47%
Poisson Distribution52%48%
H2h71%29%
Goals53%47%
Total49.7%50.5%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Rot-Weiß Essen

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home3.15 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.72 @ Pinnacle
Away2.24 @ 188Bet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.70 @ Betano
Under 2.52.25 @ Unibet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.57 @ William Hill
No2.41 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Erzgebirge Aue = 1.79 (league 1.56), Rot-Weiß Essen = 1.67 (league 1.38)

Rot-Weiß Essen
0 1 2 3 4 5
Erzgebirge Aue 0 3.2% 5.3% 4.4% 2.4% 1.0% 0.3%
1 5.6% 9.4% 7.8% 4.4% 1.8% 0.6%
2 5.1% 8.4% 7.0% 3.9% 1.6% 0.5%
3 3.0% 5.0% 4.2% 2.3% 1.0% 0.3%
4 1.3% 2.2% 1.9% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1%
5 0.5% 0.8% 0.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 40.3% · Draw 22.4% · Away win 35.5%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1