3. Liga — Germany
Sun, Dec 7 2025 • 18:30 • Erzgebirgsstadion
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.28 (league 1.62) 1.59 (league 1.41)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
30.6% 24.6% 44.0%
best score tips
1 - 1
11.5%
1 - 2
9.2%
0 - 1
9.0%
Score & goals probability table
FC Ingolstadt 04
0 1 2 3 4 5
Erzgebirge Aue 0 5.6% 9.0% 7.2% 3.8% 1.5% 0.5%
1 7.2% 11.5% 9.2% 4.9% 1.9% 0.6%
2 4.6% 7.4% 5.9% 3.1% 1.2% 0.4%
3 2.0% 3.2% 2.5% 1.3% 0.5% 0.2%
4 0.6% 1.0% 0.8% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1%
5 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricErzgebirge AueFC Ingolstadt 04
Played55
Form40%40%
Attack64%64%
Defense27%18%
Goals For (tot | avg)7 | 1.47 | 1.4
Goals Against (tot | avg)8 | 1.69 | 1.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.80
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.90
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.10
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.00
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

84%
FT probability

2.5+

59%
FT probability

3.5+

42%
FT probability

BTTS

72%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

3 - 5 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Erzgebirge Aue FC Ingolstadt 04
HATHAT
Played88168816
Wins38%13%25%38%25%31%
Draws38%25%31%38%25%31%
Loses25%63%44%25%50%38%

Form: Erzgebirge Aue: DLWLLLLWWDLDWDDL • FC Ingolstadt 04: DLDDLWDLDWWWLLLW

League goals

Metric Erzgebirge Aue FC Ingolstadt 04
HATHAT
GF total10717141327
GF avg1.30.91.11.81.61.7
GA total111526111324
GA avg1.41.91.61.41.61.5

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineErzgebirge AueFC Ingolstadt 04
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.569%75%88%88%
1.525%50%38%50%
2.56%31%19%13%
3.56%6%13%0%
4.50%0%6%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricErzgebirge AueFC Ingolstadt 04
HATHAT
Clean sheets314112
Failed to score415112

Penalties

MetricErzgebirge AueFC Ingolstadt 04
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total01

Streaks

MetricErzgebirge AueFC Ingolstadt 04
Wins23
Draws22
Losses43

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-00-14-12-6
Biggest losses0-34-12-33-1
Goals For4146
Goals Against3433

Model comparison

MetricErzgebirge AueFC Ingolstadt 04
Form50%50%
Att50%50%
Def53%47%
Poisson Distribution44%56%
H2h50%50%
Goals38%63%
Total47.5%52.7%

Advice: Double chance : draw or FC Ingolstadt 04

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.80 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.80 @ Pinnacle
Away2.48 @ Unibet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.60 @ 1xBet
Under 2.52.40 @ Betfair

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.53 @ Pinnacle
No2.52 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Erzgebirge Aue = 1.28 (league 1.62), FC Ingolstadt 04 = 1.59 (league 1.41)

FC Ingolstadt 04
0 1 2 3 4 5
Erzgebirge Aue 0 5.6% 9.0% 7.2% 3.8% 1.5% 0.5%
1 7.2% 11.5% 9.2% 4.9% 1.9% 0.6%
2 4.6% 7.4% 5.9% 3.1% 1.2% 0.4%
3 2.0% 3.2% 2.5% 1.3% 0.5% 0.2%
4 0.6% 1.0% 0.8% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1%
5 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 30.6% · Draw 24.6% · Away win 44.0%

Vtot 3 , Vtod1