3. Liga — Germany
Wed, Mar 4 2026 • 18:00 • Audi Sportpark
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.58 (league 1.62) 1.42 (league 1.37)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
40.8% 24.2% 34.1%
best score tips
1 - 1
11.2%
2 - 1
8.8%
1 - 2
7.9%
Score & goals probability table
MSV Duisburg
0 1 2 3 4 5
FC Ingolstadt 04 0 5.0% 7.1% 5.0% 2.4% 0.8% 0.2%
1 7.9% 11.2% 7.9% 3.8% 1.3% 0.4%
2 6.2% 8.8% 6.3% 3.0% 1.1% 0.3%
3 3.3% 4.6% 3.3% 1.6% 0.6% 0.2%
4 1.3% 1.8% 1.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1%
5 0.4% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricFC Ingolstadt 04MSV Duisburg
Played55
Form53%47%
Attack53%60%
Defense67%27%
Goals For (tot | avg)8 | 1.69 | 1.8
Goals Against (tot | avg)5 | 111 | 2.2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.50
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.20
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.70
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.80
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

87%
FT probability

2.5+

61%
FT probability

3.5+

44%
FT probability

BTTS

73%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric FC Ingolstadt 04 MSV Duisburg
HATHAT
Played121426131326
Wins42%29%35%69%31%50%
Draws33%36%35%31%31%31%
Loses25%36%31%0%38%19%

Form: FC Ingolstadt 04: DLDDLWDLDWWWLLLWDLDWWWDDWL • MSV Duisburg: WWWWWWDWDDLDDWLWLDDWWLWLWD

League goals

Metric FC Ingolstadt 04 MSV Duisburg
HATHAT
GF total202545272047
GF avg1.71.81.72.11.51.8
GA total162036132033
GA avg1.31.41.41.01.51.3

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineFC Ingolstadt 04MSV Duisburg
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.588%81%81%69%
1.546%50%58%27%
2.523%8%31%15%
3.58%0%12%8%
4.54%0%0%4%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricFC Ingolstadt 04MSV Duisburg
HATHAT
Clean sheets235268
Failed to score213145

Penalties

MetricFC Ingolstadt 04MSV Duisburg
Scored (total | %)2 | 100.00%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total20

Streaks

MetricFC Ingolstadt 04MSV Duisburg
Wins36
Draws22
Losses31

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins4-12-64-20-4
Biggest losses2-33-1—6-1
Goals For4644
Goals Against3326

Model comparison

MetricFC Ingolstadt 04MSV Duisburg
Form53%47%
Att47%53%
Def69%31%
Poisson Distribution52%48%
H2h80%20%
Goals73%27%
Total62.3%37.7%

Advice: Double chance : FC Ingolstadt 04 or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.52 @ Betano
Draw3.55 @ 188Bet
Away2.92 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.85 @ SBO
Under 2.52.06 @ Unibet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.67 @ Bet365
No2.37 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

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Expected goals (λ): FC Ingolstadt 04 = 1.58 (league 1.62), MSV Duisburg = 1.42 (league 1.37)

MSV Duisburg
0 1 2 3 4 5
FC Ingolstadt 04 0 5.0% 7.1% 5.0% 2.4% 0.8% 0.2%
1 7.9% 11.2% 7.9% 3.8% 1.3% 0.4%
2 6.2% 8.8% 6.3% 3.0% 1.1% 0.3%
3 3.3% 4.6% 3.3% 1.6% 0.6% 0.2%
4 1.3% 1.8% 1.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1%
5 0.4% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 40.8% · Draw 24.2% · Away win 34.1%

vtt 1 , vtd1