Mon, Apr 27 2026 • 17:00 •
Besiktas Park
Expected Goals
2.67 (league 1.49)
0.78 (league 1.24)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 72.1% | 14.1% | 8.4% |
best score tips
2 - 0
11.4%
3 - 0
10.1%
2 - 1
8.8%
Score & goals probability table
| Fatih Karagümrük | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Beşiktaş | 0 | 3.2% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 8.6% | 6.7% | 2.6% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 11.4% | 8.8% | 3.4% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 10.1% | 7.8% | 3.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 6.7% | 5.2% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 3.6% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Beşiktaş carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 235 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Beşiktaş +0.5, Fatih Karagümrük -0.7.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Beşiktaş
vs
Fatih Karagümrük
Elo gapBeşiktaş +235
Home / draw / away65% / 18% / 17%
Expected home share79%
Combined Elo3093.2
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3093.2
Elo home share
79%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Beşiktaş | Fatih Karagümrük |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1646.8 | 1446.4 |
| Form Elo | 1651.8 | 1444.4 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1548.4 | 1457.1 |
| Attack Elo | 1708.7 | 1451 |
| Defense Elo | 1605.1 | 1461.8 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +0.5 | -0.7 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Beşiktaş last-5 Elo change: +0.5; Fatih Karagümrük last-5 Elo change: -0.7.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Beşiktaş | Fatih Karagümrük |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 60% | 40% |
| Attack | 82% | 45% |
| Defense | 45% | 36% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 9 | 1.8 | 5 | 1 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 7 | 1.4 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.70
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.70
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.00
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.30
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
84%
FT probability
2.5+
59%
FT probability
3.5+
42%
FT probability
BTTS
76%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-4
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Beşiktaş | Fatih Karagümrük | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 15 | 15 | 30 | 15 | 15 | 30 |
| Wins | 60% | 47% | 53% | 27% | 7% | 17% |
| Draws | 20% | 27% | 23% | 20% | 13% | 17% |
| Loses | 20% | 27% | 23% | 53% | 80% | 67% |
BeşiktaşWLWLWWDLWDLWDWDDWWDWDWWWLWWLWL
Fatih KaragümrükLLWLLLLLLDLWDLLDLLLLWLDLDWLWLL
League goals
| Metric | Beşiktaş | Fatih Karagümrük | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 29 | 25 | 54 | 15 | 12 | 27 |
| GF avg | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.9 |
| GA total | 18 | 18 | 36 | 22 | 31 | 53 |
| GA avg | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.8 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Beşiktaş | Fatih Karagümrük | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 87% | 73% | 60% | 87% |
| 1.5 | 60% | 37% | 27% | 60% |
| 2.5 | 23% | 10% | 3% | 27% |
| 3.5 | 10% | 0% | 0% | 3% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Beşiktaş | Fatih Karagümrük | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 5 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 12 |
Penalties
| Metric | Beşiktaş | Fatih Karagümrük |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 4 | 100.00% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 4 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | Beşiktaş | Fatih Karagümrük |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 1 |
| Draws | 2 | 1 |
| Losses | 1 | 6 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-0 | 0-4 | 2-0 | 1-2 |
| Biggest losses | 2-3 | 3-0 | 1-3 | 3-0 |
| Goals For | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Beşiktaş | Fatih Karagümrük |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 60% | 40% |
| Att | 64% | 36% |
| Def | 54% | 46% |
| Poisson Distribution | 78% | 22% |
| H2h | 85% | 15% |
| Goals | 80% | 20% |
| Total | 70.2% | 29.8% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home1.35 @ 1xBet
Draw5.80 @ Betano
Away9.75 @ Betano
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.60 @ Betano
Under 2.52.50 @ Unibet
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.93 @ Betano
No1.91 @ William Hill
📊
League standings
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