Sat, Sep 27 2025 • 13:30 • LHP Stadium
Match Finished
Expected Goals
0.76 (league 1.71) 0.80 (league 1.44)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
30.9% 35.9% 33.1%
best score tips
0 - 0
21.1%
0 - 1
16.8%
1 - 0
16.0%
Score & goals probability table
Newport City
0 1 2 3 4 5
Carmarthen Town 0 21.1% 16.8% 6.7% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1%
1 16.0% 12.8% 5.1% 1.4% 0.3% 0.0%
2 6.1% 4.8% 1.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
3 1.5% 1.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricCarmarthen TownNewport City
Played55
Form40%60%
Attack17%56%
Defense78%61%
Goals For (tot | avg)3 | 0.610 | 2
Goals Against (tot | avg)4 | 0.87 | 1.4

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.20
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.30
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.70
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.80
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

71%
FT probability

2.5+

50%
FT probability

3.5+

36%
FT probability

BTTS

69%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

- no cards data
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Carmarthen Town Newport City
HATHAT
Played437347
Wins50%33%43%67%50%57%
Draws50%33%43%33%50%43%
Loses0%33%14%0%0%0%

Form: Carmarthen Town: WWDWDLD • Newport City: WWDDDWW

League goals

Metric Carmarthen Town Newport City
HATHAT
GF total4594913
GF avg1.01.71.31.32.31.9
GA total235257
GA avg0.51.00.70.71.31.0

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineCarmarthen TownNewport City
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.571%43%100%71%
1.529%14%57%14%
2.514%14%29%14%
3.514%0%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricCarmarthen TownNewport City
HATHAT
Clean sheets224112
Failed to score112000

Penalties

MetricCarmarthen TownNewport City
Scored (total | %)1 | 100.00%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total11

Streaks

MetricCarmarthen TownNewport City
Wins22
Draws13
Losses10

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-10-42-11-3
Biggest losses—3-1——
Goals For2423
Goals Against1313

Model comparison

MetricCarmarthen TownNewport City
Form40%60%
Att23%77%
Def64%36%
Poisson Distribution47%53%
H2h67%33%
Goals50%50%
Total48.5%51.5%

Advice: Double chance : Carmarthen Town or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.35 @ Superbet
Draw3.83 @ Pinnacle
Away2.52 @ Marathonbet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.50 @ Bet365
Under 2.52.50 @ Bet365

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.44 @ Superbet
No2.73 @ 1xBet
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

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Expected goals (λ): Carmarthen Town = 0.76 (league 1.71), Newport City = 0.80 (league 1.44)

Newport City
0 1 2 3 4 5
Carmarthen Town 0 21.1% 16.8% 6.7% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1%
1 16.0% 12.8% 5.1% 1.4% 0.3% 0.0%
2 6.1% 4.8% 1.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
3 1.5% 1.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 30.9% · Draw 35.9% · Away win 33.1%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1